Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (September 12)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Two doubleheaders, a few opener/follower situations, and a Coors Field game. This is a weird slate.
Ryne Nelson’s “Changes” vs. New York’s Dinger Prowess
There were reports of Nelson refining his arsenal in the minors, and his first start back in the big leagues looked decent on the surface. He gave up 1 ER over 5.2 IP, earning the win against a good Chicago lineup. The underlying numbers, however, look like the same old Nelson.
He struck out just three Cubs, while walking two. Nelson’s swinging strike rate was a pitiful 4.1% and his hard-hit rate was a massive 53.3%. Seems a lot like the guy with the 4th percentile K% and 5.33 xERA.
The Mets have been middling vs. RHPs since the start of August (96 wRC+), but they have been leaving the yard. New York is 7th in home runs over that span. Nelson is allowing a .232 ISO to righties and a nearly-identical .231 ISO to lefties, so don’t have to worry about splits here.
SUMMARY: There’s some upside with the Mets stack. Nelson is extremely hittable and he’ll be relieved by a bottom 10 bullpen. I’ll be at least hunting power here, and I don’t mind getting 3-4 New York bats in there. The usual suspects (Lindor/Alonso/Nimmo) make sense, and Stewart/Alvarez/Baty are cheap options.
Cal Quantrill’s Health vs. San Francisco’s Exploitable Lineup
What if Quantrill is finally getting healthy? He was cruising through May, doing his normal low-strikeout, minimal-hard-contact thing, and then it came crashing down. Quantrill gave up 14 ER over two starts in late May and hit the IL with a shoulder issue. He returned at the end of June, got hammer twice, and went back to the IL.
In two outings since coming back from the second IL stint, Quantrill’s tossed two quality starts and allowed just five hits over 12 innings. His strikeout rate is 17.4% over those two starts, which is right in line with his career mark, after being down at 12.4% prior to his return.
We’ve been picking on San Francisco pretty regularly, and they’re still 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of August.
SUMMARY: I’m buying into his recent run. He probably doesn’t have enough upside to use on FanDuel, but he makes for a solid SP2 on DraftKings, especially at $5.5K.
Seattle’s Strikeouts vs. Patrick Sandoval’s Lack Thereof
The Mariners can get buried by strikeouts, yet they’ve been generating runs against lefties over the last two months. Seattle has the 2nd-highest K% vs. LHPs since the start of July, but they’re 5th in wRC+. It hasn’t been with the long ball either, as they’re 27th in HRs over that span.
Being able to sustain innings and produce runs can outweigh the strikeout downside, particularly against a pitcher who might not be able to take advantage of the whiffs.
Sandoval is down to a career-low 19.5% strikeout rate, while his 11.2% walk rate ties a career-high. That’s a recipe for some big innings from the Seattle offense.
SUMMARY: Julio Rodriguez is basically priced out of consideration, but the rest of the Mariners are affordable. I’ll have Teoscar Hernandez in every lineup, followed by a mix of Crawford/Suarez/France/Moore/Kelenic. This is a cheap stack with plenty of potential.