MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, July 26th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There isn’t a lot of terrible power prevention on this slate, so it will be challenging to create a large pool of stacks. We can stack up half of the teams, for sure, but I wanna go heavy on the teams we’ll discuss in this space before branching out.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, July 26th
CHALKY STACK
Yankees at Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello has been not-good this year. His 3.61 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA on the season indicate that his 5.27 ERA has been extremely unlucky, but his 4.67 xERA suggests that he’s been a bit less unlucky.
xFIP is great for isolating the three true outcomes, and SIERA takes into account batted ball frequencies, but xERA looks at the quality of contact allowed more closely. And, when we look at the quality of contact Bello has surrendered, we see that it’s pretty hard and often.
Bello has allowed an 8.3% barrel rate this season, overall on a 49.1% hard-hit rate. Lefties are especially successful against him through 206 batters faced – 8.9% barrel rate for a .228 ISO allowed to only an 18.4% K rate.
All of this says that we should throw a lot of exposure to the high barrel rates against righties this season of:
Aaron Judge, 24.9%
Juan Soto, 22.7%
Ben Rice (86 PAs), 20.8%
Trent Grisham, 11%
DJ LeMahieu, 9.3%
Austin Wells, 8.7%
Again, especially the lefties, Soto, Rice, Grisham, and Wells. If we wanna throw Alex Verdugo in play, that’s perfectly reasonable, but this might be the time to bow out on high exposure to righties Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres.
I don’t think there will be any true chalk stack on this slate. We’re projecting the Yankees for the most ownership, but we’re only projecting them at about 10% on DK and 12% on FD. This is palatable.
There also aren’t many strong stacks on this slate, so I don’t see a high opportunity cost in going way overweight on the Yankees to counter the field, especially in smaller fields where they could be in the 25% range of pOWN%.
Add that this game is in Fenway Park, which isn’t a significant ballpark downgrade, and that the Yankees will be guaranteed 9 innings of hitting on the road, and it’s easy to see where the Yankees are rated as the top stack.
That said, all things considered, there are two stacks I’d put on par with the Yankees at the top of this slate.
TOP STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
