MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 9
Derek Farnsworth walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
All 30 teams are in action tonight, but the first two games aren’t included in the main slate. This means we have 26 teams to choose from tonight for our stacks. A game in Coors Field always complicates matters, but there are four other games that have a total of at least 9.5 runs. This should help spread out the ownership and should give us some nice lower-owned options to choose from. Let’s dive into the slate.
Oh, and Happy Friday everyone! If you haven’t seen the new version of PlateIQ, you can check it out here.
Chalk Stack – Padres vs. Austin Gomber (LHP)
The Padres are not only playing in the best hitter’s park in baseball, but they also have the best matchup on the board as well. On the season, Austin Gomber owns a 7.24 xERA with a .404 xwOBA allowed. Of qualified pitchers, those are the worst marks on the entire slate. It’s not like his numbers get much better if we zoom out, as he’s had an ERA over 6.00 over the last two seasons with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He really struggles against right-handed hitters, allowing a .378 wOBA over the last two seasons.
It’s easy to see why the Padres are set to garner 11% ownership on DraftKings and 13% ownership on FanDuel. While that seems fairly high for a 13-game slate, there is still some value in stacking San Diego. They show up in the optimal more than 15% of the time. This stack is far from cheap, but it possesses plenty of upside. Ha-seong Kim, Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado all boast a .340+ wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Gary Sanchez has been red-hot this season, posting a .271 xISO. Those are the first five batters in the projected lineup, and the stack sets up nicely because it covers 3B, SS, C, and two OF spots.
If you want to be a little contrarian with your Padres stacks or if you are looking to save some salary, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Dixon, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham can be used as well. I never shy away from lefty/lefty matchups in these situations because the hope for the Padres is that they knock Gomber out of the game early.
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