MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 24th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Aside from Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen, I’m not enthused to play any pitching on this slate. I really hate spending up this season because of the volatility and the lack of extreme disparity between the top tier of pitching and the mid-tier just about every slate. However, this is a great slate to play cheap MME GPPs because I want 150 lineups with a diverse pitching pool but a tight stacking pool. As we’ll discuss, the stacks projections fall off pretty fast after the top 4 or 5 teams. We’re going to prioritize those teams aggressively and be more passive with pitching.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, May 24th
CHALKY STACKS
Dodgers at Graham Ashcraft
Phillies at Ty Blach
The Great American Ball Park and Coors Field are two of MLB’s best hitting parks, and we get both on the same slate. So we will have the dynamic of them cannibalizing each other’s ownership, but the Dodgers and Phillies without unintimidating matchups visiting these parks (and guaranteeing 9 innings of hitting) will likely be the two most-owned stacks on this large slate.
Plunk the Dodgers in Cincinnati against any sub-elite pitcher, and we will have interest, because this is the best park in baseball for hitting home runs, according to EV Analytics and Baseball Savant. They face Graham Ashcraft, who is just unspectacular enough for us to roll out these high barrel rates versus RHP against him:
Shohei Ohtani, 21.8%
Teoscar Hernandez, 13.2%
Freddie Freeman, 11%
Mookie Betts, 9.9%
Ashcraft doesn’t have a ton of power or fly-ball issues to exploit, but he allows a lot of contact and might be reverse splitsy. He’s surrendered a near-80% contact rate overall, and the data is pretty rough for him against righties. He’s given up a 49.7% hard-hit rate and 8% barrel rate to righties with only a 16.8% K rate. If you’re telling me that Betts and Hernandez, along with Will Smith and Andy Pages, are gonna get a lot of wood on the ball in this ballpark, I want all of them.
We can play every Dodger in a high-contact spot in an excellent home-run park. Coors being on the slate should cap their ownership, so they likely won’t be mega-chalk in single-entry tournaments on an 11-game slate, and it won’t cost more than 25 lineups out of 150 to be overweight on them in MME.
But they’re not my top stack on the slate.
The Phillies get to go to Coors, which is great for everything — batter’s eye, less break and control for pitchers, along with extra-base hits of every sort — and they have the top implied run total on the slate (6.2). And they face a guy, Ty Blach, who really sucks against righties.
Blach has given up a .410 wOBA on a 52.6% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrel rate with only a 13.5% K rate against righties. Overall, his contact rate is an extremely high 86.6%, which should be easy game for all of the Phillies.
The righties we should highlight, who have strong numbers against LHP, are:
J.T. Realmuto [.241 ISO, 15% barrel rate]
Edmundo Sosa [.241, 11.4% with a 34.3% fly-ball rate]
Alec Bohm [.265, 8.7%]
Nick Castellanos [.205, 8.9%]
Cristian Pache [.176, 9.4%]
Add that Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can drop bombs in any high-contact situation against RHP and LHP, and we can literally play every Philly. The Rockies’ bullpen isn’t the worst in baseball, but it has allowed a .361 wOBA, .176 ISO, and a 7.8% barrel rate to lefties, amplifying the Harper/Schwarber plays in a game where Blach shouldn’t last too long.
But they’re not my top stack on the slate.
We should be overweight on the Phillies in MME in a range that’s parallel to our Dodgers exposure. And they’re obviously playable in single-entry tournaments because they’re a good offense in Coors, and the Dodgers in Cincinnati should cap their ownership to a palatable level.
Personally, I’m pivoting off of the Dodgers and Phillies full stacks in single-entry to a great offense in a great ballpark for homers against a terrible pitcher who will be followed by the worst bullpen in baseball.
PIVOT STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
