MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 31st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
On a pitching-heavy slate, it’s tempting to tighten the pool of hitters to the top projected stacks and sprinkle the pitching around. This dynamic can produce a slate where a few teams coagulate at the top ownership tier and bunch at the bottom with very little in the middle. We should look at ways to attack the little in the middle and a little at the bottom deliberately to get overweight on spots where the field is scared, despite solid situations to break the slate. In this space, we’re gonna look at why we should be exposed to the Dodgers and Braves but still discuss a few spots to be different on a slate where we could easily stack half of the teams in MME.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, May 31st
CHALKY STACKS
Dodgers vs. Dakota Hudson
Braves vs. JP Sears
The chalk will likely gravitate toward two of the best offenses in baseball facing two of the worst pitchers on the slate.
The Dodgers get to face Dakota Hudson and his slate-worsts 5.34 SIERA, 1.9% K-BB rate, and 82.1% contact rate. Hudson doesn’t surrender much power, but the sheer high frequency of contact is all the Dodgers need in a sneaky-good home-run park in L.A. With all of the traffic on the basepaths, every Dodger is in play for stacks, starting with these high barrel rates against RHP:
Shohei Ohtani, 21.4%
Teoscar Hernandez, 13.4%
Freddie Freeman, 11.1%
Mookie Betts, 9.8%
Andy Pages, 9.3%
We generally don’t have to worry too much about ownership on a 13-game slate, but we should be conscious of ownership in the way that we play the Dodgers. The one-offs will carry high ownership costs, so we’ll have to pull that correlation lever and stack them 4, if not 5, ways. And stack them often.
In 5 (or even 3) lineups, I’m getting to a Dodgers stack or two, but in single-entry tournaments, I lean more toward the Braves and their slightly lower pOWN% because JP Sears has given up more power. Sears has allowed 1.62 HR/9 on a 10.7% barrel rate — 11.5% to righties — and the Braves pulverize LHP with all of these high barrel rates:
Sean Murphy, 18.2%
Adam Duvall, 17.7%
Austin Riley, 15.6%
Marcell Ozuna, 15.2%
Matt Olson, 13.7%
Orlando Arcia, 11.9%
Ozzie Albies, 9.2%
Michael Harris sees a dip in his power against LHP, but he still comes with a 55.3% hard-hit rate and a lot of speed with aggression on the basepaths.
What’s worse for Sears is that his contact rate is 81.1% this season, up from 77.9% in 2023. Given his 34.9% fly-ball rate, the Braves should have a wealth of opportunities to knock balls out of the park. Overall, Sears’ 42 HRs allowed are tied for the most in MLB.
The size of the slate is gonna cap the Dodgers’ and Braves’ pOWN% under their Opto%, so I highly recommend going overweight before full fading, as their actual ownership should be palatable. But they will almost certainly be the highest-owned stacks, so remember to adjust for this in smaller fields where the highest-owned stacks inflate a bit over their large-field pOWN%.
PIVOT STACKS
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