MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 8th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a small 5-game slate for Monday that gets started at 6:40 PM ET. There is one very obvious pitcher in Chris Sale to pay up for, and then things should be pretty spread out from there. On the hitting side, we do have a couple of teams with lofty implied run totals that should lead to pretty obvious chalk.
Let’s discuss those stacks and a couple of other options.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, July 8th
CHALK STACKS
Twins at Chris Flexen
Reds vs. Ryan Feltner
The Reds and Twins stacks are grading out quite similarly on both sites as the top options on the slate. Both teams have implied run totals above five runs, and both are projected for roughly 18% ownership on DraftKings and 20% ownership on FanDuel. It will be interesting to see if ownership condenses around one stack over the other in small-field and single-entry tournaments.
The Twins have been playing great baseball of late, as they are 7-3 over their last 10 games. Their offense has been the best in baseball by a wide margin over the past 30 days, with Minnesota ranking 1st in wRC+ (151) and wOBA (.382). For context, Baltimore has been the 2nd-best offense in that time frame in wRC+ (132) and wOBA (.354).
While breakout star Royce Lewis has had trouble staying healthy, many others have stepped up to provide the offensive punch. All nine hitters in the projected lineup own an ISO above league average against right-handed pitching.
The Twins get a matchup against power-prone righty Chris Flexen and a bad White Sox bullpen. Flexen owns a 5.08 ERA in 18 appearances and has allowed 1.59 HR/9. He has struck out just 17.2% of batters while allowing 47% fly balls. The righty has been particularly prone to left-handed power, surrendering a .306 ISO and 10.6% barrel rate. The White Sox bullpen behind him owns the 5th-worst SIERA (4.07) and the 2nd-highest walk rate (11.4%) in baseball.
Every hitter in the lineup is in play, with no single bat standing out above the rest. Jose Miranda and Ryan Jeffers lead the team in ISO against righties, with Miranda and Carlos Correa leading the team in wOBA. The top barrel rates against righties belong to Matt Wallner (in a small 32 PA sample), Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton.
The bats are also very reasonably priced, with no hitter coming in above $3,600 on FD and only Carlos Correa above $4,800 on DK. According to the Top Stacks tool, they own a slate-leading 32% optimal rate on FD, while they check in 2nd on DK at 18%.
The Reds look equally as great, with a matchup against Ryan Feltner and the worst bullpen in baseball. Feltner owns a 5.60 ERA and has struck out just 19.3% of batters. His 37% hard-hit rate and 6.1% barrels allowed are actually pretty respectable, but when you allow nearly 80% contact, you are asking for trouble. The Rockies bullpen behind Feltner has easily been the worst in the league. They own the highest SIERA (4.50), lowest strikeout rate (18%), and 4th-highest walk rate (10.8%).
Elly De La Cruz stands out as one of the top options on the slate. He owns a 15% barrel rate against righties and leads MLB with 43 stolen bases – 14 more than the Brewer’s Bryce Turang, who ranks 2nd.
Feltner struggles most with lefties, which makes the 9.3% barrel rate of Jeimer Candelario and 13.5% barrel rate of Will Benson extremely enticing targets. Of course, Benson comes with huge risk thanks to a 43% strikeout rate.
Spencer Steer owns an above average .181 ISO and .330 wOBA against righties, while Jonathan India ranks 2nd on the team with a .350 wOBA against righties.
The Reds are also reasonably priced outside of De La Cruz, who owns slate-breaking upside. No hitter other than EDLC is priced above $3,500 on FD or $4,900 on DK. Their optimal rate comes in just shy of 18% and ranks 3rd on DK, and they come in above 23% on FD and rank 2nd.
The context for both the Reds and Twins is excellent on this small slate, but we do need to be careful about pairing them together or with Chris Sale chalk on the pitching side. Ownership is not expected to be at a level where we need to consider fading anything, but I do believe we need to have differentiation in mind when constructing lineups. I think you need to fade at least one of the three chalk pieces (Chris Sale, Twins stack, Reds stack) in every lineup, and I would make conscious pivots in remaining roster spots if using two of them.
PIVOT STACK
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