MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, September 2nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s a nice little 6-game slate that we have for the evening main. The chalk is the obvious top stack, but we can get different pretty easily with our secondary stack to get some or a ton of leverage if we choose. In this space, we’ll touch on that great chalk with the two spots where we can craft our lineups with leverage to mitigate that chalk.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, September 2nd
CHALK STACK
Yankees at Jack Leiter
Jack Leiter is pretty bad. He’s allowed 4.9 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 over 254.2 IP to minor leaguers since starting his professional career in 2022. Pitching in Texas won’t help. Pitching in Texas against the Yankees certainly won’t help.
The Yankees projected lineup is just suffocating. They have a .217 ISO on a ridiculous 13.2% barrel rate against righties, highlighted by these high barrel rates:
Aaron Judge, 25.7%
Giancarlo Stanton, 23.1%
Juan Soto, 22.1%
Jazz Chisholm, 13.2%
Austin Wells, 10.6%
Add the periodic power of Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo and the stack makes itself.
Leiter has surrendered a 13% barrel rate on a 31.5% fly-ball rate over the course of 76 MLB batters faced, and there’s no sign that he’s gonna calm down and perform well against one of the best offenses in baseball.
The big question is ownership, as about ~25% of the field is gonna stack the Yankees, but that’s not mega chalk for a 6-game slate. I’m not at all opposed to playing Yankees stacks in single entry and small fields as long as we fully stack them. I’m not opposed to playing Yankees stacks in MME, even if we’re playing Yankees in half of our lineups.
This sounds crazy, but Leiter is that bad right now, and the Rangers bullpen can give up dongs too.
Logan Gilbert is in a great spot, but he isn’t looking like mega chalk either, given the size of the slate. We can certainly play him with the Yankees, but we might have to avoid the punt-priced Ty Madden. We can also pivot off of Gilbert to Osvaldo Bido and do whatever we want with hitting.
We can also play the Yankees with Gilbert-Madden, along with low-owned secondary stacks.
PIVOT STACK
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