MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel are aligned on this first day of June with 9-game slates kicking off at 4:05 PM ET. This is another slate with quite a few viable pitching options, though Chris Sale stands out as the likely chalk SP1 in a cushy matchup at home against Oakland. At first glance, this is a wide-open slate with no clear answers on the hitting side of things, as no one offense stands out as the clear-cut best option. These are generally the best kinds of slates for tournaments, as we’re unlikely to see a ton of ownership coalesce around any single stack.
Let’s take a closer look, shall we?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, June 1st
SEMI-CHALK STACK
Padres at Alec Marsh
The Padres plated 11 runs last night against Michael Wacha and friends, though they did most of their damage with singles. It wasn’t necessarily a slate-winning performance, and their 4.36 implied run total this afternoon doesn’t really jump off the page. The Pads will be taking their swings against Alec Marsh, a right-hander who’s actually pitched pretty well so far this season.
Saying Marsh has pitched well is more indicative of his low expectations than anything else. What he’s really been is about average. We’re talking about a strikeout rate just over 21%, low walk and barrel rates, and a 4.04 SIERA. Marsh is yielding more fly balls than ground balls, and he’s benefited from a fairly low .245 BABIP. Nothing about his numbers really screams that regression is imminent, but he’s also not looking like a guy we absolutely must avoid stacking against.
It’ll be around 80 degrees this afternoon in KC, making it one of the warmer games on the day. Over his first 2 MLB seasons, Marsh has allowed a .355 wOBA and 13 home runs to righties, while lefties are at .329 with 8 dingers. We’ve seen a similar story from RHBs this season (.355 wOBA), but LHBs (.230) have done very little damage.
The Padres don’t have the most imposing offense on paper now that they’ve lost Juan Soto, but the top 4 hitters in the projected order – Luis Arraez, Fernando Tatis, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth – have hit well this year. Cronenworth (.246 ISO) and Tatis (.204) have hit for the most power vs. righties, though it’s a bit alarming how poorly Manny Machado has played. His 3.8% barrel rate vs. RHP is the 2nd lowest of the projected starters, while he’s posted a sub-.300 wOBA and a sub-.100 ISO. I’d still get to Machado in stacks of course, but Tatis is the far bigger priority among the expensive Padres.
In case you couldn’t tell, I’m not exactly geeked to be getting to the Padres today, especially if they’re going to be pulling ownership. The long-term numbers suggest Marsh is one of the weaker pitchers taking the mound this afternoon, so I get it. The San Diego stack on DraftKings is coming in around 12.6% pOWN% next to an optimal rate of over 14%. On FanDuel, the Pads are around 13% pOWN% with an Opto% over 20%.
PIVOT STACKS
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