MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 25th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! The weather for this afternoon’s main slate looks an awful lot like yesterday’s. We don’t have any rain concerns anywhere, while the PHI-KCR game has what is easily the best hitting weather of the day, with warm temps and winds once again blowing out to left field. The pitching looks quite rough on this slate in general, which leaves us with 3 teams with implied run totals of at least 5 and several more knocking on the door.
Let’s dive in and figure out whom we’re stacking.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, August 25th
CHALK STACK
Yankees vs. Austin Gomber
The Rockies are still in the Bronx, which means the Yankees can continue to pick on their mediocre pitching staff for another day. New York’s 5.8 implied run total should make the Rockies feel right at home, as we typically only see numbers this high in games at Coors Field.
The Bombers will take their hacks against Austin Gomber, whose numbers are about as average as it gets across the board. Gomber isn’t blowing anybody away with strikeouts (17%), nor is he generating tons of ground balls (40%). Gomber’s 10.3% barrel rate is the worst mark of his career, while his 25 homers allowed is tied for the 3rd most in the sport.
Gomber hasn’t been amazing against LHBs by any means, but most of his struggles come against righties, as you’d expect. Right-handed hitters have lit him up to the tune of a .342 wOBA with 18 homers, while he’s shown some ground ball skills (48%) against lefties. That’ll be enough for me to prioritize Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield spots over Juan Soto, though I suspect the field may do the same. Judge and Soto might be the 2 top bats on the slate, but they obviously won’t come cheap.
The Yanks have moved Gleyber Torres up into the lead-off spot in recent days. Assuming he’s there again, he’ll rate out as one of the better mid-range values on the board at any position. The Yanks’ barrel rates against LHP drop off considerably once you get past those first 4 hitters, but Jose Trevino and Anthony Volpe would be next on my wish list for full stacks from the left side.
The Yankees are always a scary fade, but the full stack will cost you. Judge will surely carry the lion’s share of the ownership regardless of whether people are playing him alongside his teammates, so I’m not really concerned about the pOWN% for anybody else wearing pinstripes. New York is only pulling 12% pOWN% as a stack on DraftKings, but their 17% Opto% is also the highest on the slate. They’re more popular on FD (14% pOWN%), but their optimal rate is pushing a whopping 29% over there.
CO-CHALK STACK
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