MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 27
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
On this slate, we’re gonna have to get uncomfortable with talented, underachieving stacks in great spots. We can fade all three teams highlighted in this article and still make hundreds of plus-EV lineups. There aren’t really mega-chalk levels of chalk, but the Jays will be the highest-owned. We’ll discuss them, briefly gloss over some really good pivots before discussing my favorite, and we’ll finally attack a high-owned pitcher for a maximum leverage play.
Chalky Stack – Blue Jays vs. Noah Syndergaard
I should be sandwiching the bad news with some good news, but I’m gonna keep it real with you all: The Blue Jays have been tragically average. They’re tied for 10th in wOBA, but they’re 19th in ISO despite playing in a hitter’s park.
The good news is that their lineup is still a collection of power and they get to face Noah Syndergaard, who’s been a complete disaster. Thor has given up a .410 wOBA and .256 ISO to righties, while surrendering a 12.8% barrel rate to lefties. All in all, this has amounted to a slate-worst 2.07 HR/9 among qualified starters with his slate-worst 10.8% barrel rate. In homer-friendly Rogers Centre, the Jays have a slate-high 5.47 implied total.
Back to the bad news. This feels dirty because of how often the Jays have disappointed throughout the season, and their ownership in the double digits makes this feel stupid, but it isn’t.
We can totally play all of the Jays in all formats. We can differentiate by pivoting from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Brandon Belt, from George Springer to Daulton Varsho, or from Bo Bichette to Trea Turner — whether or not we use the Phillies as a secondary stack. I’m not playing Whit Merrifield, Alejandro Kirk, or Kevin Kiermaier because I’m not finding the need to do so, but they’re certainly in play. Especially in MME play.
The Jays will be highly owned, but I think there’s a lot of bias against them. Enough to cap their ownership in the teens.
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