MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 16th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got some sizable slates on tap for this fine Sunday, though there’s one major difference between the dockets on DraftKings and FanDuel. FD’s main slate includes the Pirates-Rockies clash at Coors Field, while DK’s does not. You presumably don’t need me to tell you that any offense in that ballpark is stackable, with the Pirates looking particularly alluring against the middling Dakota Hudson. For Top Stacks today, I’ll be covering the games shared on both DK and FD with the note that the Pirates are going to be fairly popular over on FanDuel.
Without further delay, let’s dive right in.
Let’s dig into the stacks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, June 16th
CHALKY STACK
Cardinals at Jameson Taillon
There’s apparently some rain risk at Wrigley today, but we’ve also got winds blowing out to left at around 15 miles an hour. That’s a clear bump to bats, particularly righty power hitters. The Chicago side against the low-strikeout Miles Mikolas is very stackable, yet the Cardinals are currently projected for a bit more ownership on both sites.
The Cardinals will take their swings against Jameson Taillon, who looks extremely lucky to have a 3.09 ERA these days. The right-hander’s strikeout rate is down to a career-worst 16.9%, but there aren’t a lot of major red flags elsewhere. His walk and barrel rates are perfectly fine, as is his strand rate of around 73%. Taillon is simply up there throwing strikes and hoping they don’t get hit. So far, his .295 BABIP allowed suggests he’s fared well enough with that approach.
These Cardinals as a group have hit for very limited power (.135 ISO) against right-handed pitching, with just a 6.5% collective barrel rate. One thing they do decently well is hit the ball in the air, which is a strategy that should suit them well with the wind in Chicago today. Plus, these guys are still awfully cheap around the industry.
Taillon’s numbers against lefties – .337 wOBA allowed, 4 HR – are extremely mediocre, so I’d rank Nolan Gorman ($4,000 DK, $3,000 FD) ahead of everyone else in this lineup in terms of priority. Gorman also happens to be the lone Cardinal with eye-popping numbers (19.8% barrels, .257 ISO) against righties. I’m otherwise still fine with rolling the dice on batters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado hitting in the heart of the order. Another notable lefty is Alec Burleson (.354 wOBA, .168 ISO vs. RHP) assuming he hits 2nd, while Brendan Donovan, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Siani are punt types who’ll hold the platoon edge over Taillon.
I’m liking this lineup more than I expected to, but ownership is the only concern. St. Louis is pulling around 14% pOWN% as a stack on DK where we don’t have Coors, while their optimal rate is only around 8%. We don’t have to be quite as concerned about their popularity on FD, where the Redbirds are around 9% owned with about a 7% Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
