MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got 9 games on the board for the Sunday afternoon slate along with some potential weather issues, namely in Boston. This is also a fairly deep slate for pitching, though I’d expect Garrett Crochet and Freddy Peralta to both carry quite a bit of ownership at the high end of the salary spectrum. That leaves us without much can’t-miss stuff on the hitting side, though there are still a few spots worth attacking.
Let’s jump in and figure out whom we’re stacking.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, June 30th
TOP OFFENSES
Padres at Josh Winckowski (weather permitting)
Royals vs. Logan Allen
The Padres have been on fire for about a week now, and they put another 11 runs on the board in yesterday’s win over the Red Sox. The lineup is a bit watered down at the moment with Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, and Luis Campusano out injured, but they’re still getting results. Going into Fenway is a massive park boost for these bats, and the projected lineup’s overall numbers this season vs. right-handed pitching are decent, even without Tatis.
Josh Winckowski has bounced between the rotation and bullpen over the course of his career, but he’s been starting at Triple-A for most of this season thus far. Winckowski threw 6 solid innings in relief of Brayan Bello in a game last week, and they’re giving him a turn in the rotation today for the first time all year. Winckowski is a career 18.6% strikeout pitcher at the MLB level, while he was around 21% in the minors this season. He has shown decent ground ball ability (50.9%) as well. All things considered, I think Winckowski is closer to being average than he is a gas can.
Still, the Pads are projected to be somewhat popular thanks to the dearth of other appealing options. This is the best hitter’s park on the slate, and the hot/humid conditions are good for hitting if the rain cooperates. Winckowski projects for an average right-handed platoon split, though he’s been closer to neutral over the course of his career. Jake Cronenworth (.369 wOBA, .233 ISO, 12.9% barrels) has been the Padres’ most potent hitter vs. RHP this season, though Jurickson Profar (.383 wOBA), Jackson Merrill (.359), Ha-Seong Kim (.341), Luis Arraez (.351), and Kyle Higashioka (.369) have all posted impressive numbers.
You can weirdly make a compelling case that Manny Machado (.295 wOBA, .093 ISO, 5.7% barrels) has been San Diego’s least effective hitter, but he has shown signs of coming around over the past week or so. Machado is still a guy I’d want in a stack with the way Fenway plays up righty power, while you can save salary with the likes of Higashioka, Bryce Johnson, and Donovan Solano in stacks.
The Padres’ optimal rate of 11% on DraftKings is similar to the projected ownership. On FanDuel, we’re looking at 12% pOWN% for the stack alongside an 18.5% Opto%.
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