MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 19th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Eleven games populate the main MLB slates for Sunday on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re not dealing with any wonky weather, and it’s another day with some fairly low run totals and strong pitching. There are enough games on the board to where it doesn’t look like we’ll have any overwhelming chalk on the hitting side of things, but let’s take a deeper dive.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, May 19th
CHALK STACKS
Royals vs. JP Sears
Yankees vs. Chris Flexen
It’s early, but the Royals and Yankees are both projected to draw decent ownership around the industry today. The Royals will take their swings against Oakland lefty JP Sears, while the Yankees will do battle with White Sox journeyman right-hander Chris Flexen.
Sears is the more talented of the 2 pitchers, but he’s also a pretty extreme fly-ball lefty with a home run problem. Sears has already allowed 8 dongs through 9 starts this season after coughing up a whopping 34 in 32 games a season ago. That’s not a particularly easy feat for a pitcher who pitches half of his games at the spacious Oakland Coliseum.
Sears only has a career 20.1% strikeout rate at the major league level, but even that’s down to just 17% so far in 2024. His career barrel rate is over 10%, and right-handed bats have inflicted the most damage in the power department. RHBs have accounted for 43 of the 50 career longballs Sears has served up in the majors.
Kauffman Stadium isn’t the greatest park for home run hunting, but this KC lineup does profile well against the left-hander. Both Salvador Perez and Dairon Blanco have barrel rates of over 20% against lefties so far this season, albeit in still-small samples. Vinnie Pasquantino is impressively at 10% barrels in lefty-lefty spots, while Nelson Velazquez and Bobby Witt are both in the double digits if you stretch the sample to include last season’s data. Velazquez curiously still hasn’t barreled a ball in 44 trips to the plate against LHPs this season, but I’d assume it’s a matter of time until he comes around. Hunter Renfroe is a lower-in-the-order bat with a long track record of success against lefties too.
KC is projected to pull about 8% stack ownership on DraftKings with an optimal rate of over 12%. They’re grading out more neutrally on FD, with around 6% stack pOWN% and a similar optimal rate.
As for the Yankees, their red-hot offense will face Flexen in their more homer-friendly home yard. Flexen hasn’t pitched like a gas can this season for the White Sox, but he’s been around average in just about every regard. That 17.9% strikeout rate isn’t scaring anybody, and he’s still allowing more fly balls than ground balls.
Flexen’s long-term numbers paint him as a right-hander with a staunch reverse split, but lefties (.369 wOBA, 4 HR) have done most of the damage against him so far this season. We’re still only talking about a 7-game sample, and nothing about the underlying numbers says his current .284 wOBA vs. righties is sustainable. I’ll gladly stack anyone in the Yankees’ lineup against him regardless of handedness.
Needless to say, this stack looks a lot more impressive on paper than the KC one does. Aaron Judge (24.7% barrels vs. RHP), Juan Soto (19.2%), and Giancarlo Stanton (19.7%) have been tattooing the ball this season, and all 3 have been in particularly fine form recently. Austin Wells (10.7%) is the only other bat in today’s projected lineup with a double-digit barrel rate vs. RHPs on the year, but Anthony Volpe (.355 wOBA), Alex Verdugo (.343), and Anthony Rizzo (.374) have still found success.
The Yankees’ 5.54 implied run total is the highest on the board, while the Royals are next at 5.03. NYY is pulling nearly 10% projected stack ownership on FanDuel, yet their optimal rate is north of 16%, per our projections. The salaries are more cumbersome on DK, where the Yankees are around 7% stack pOWN% with about an 8% opto rate.
PIVOT STACK
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