MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 28
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Two different slates across the two sites. The games are the same, but the field will do different things on each site. On FD, ~60% of the field will be spending $9,500 or more on pitching and there’s more play-whoever-you-want there because of softer hitter pricing. On DK, most of the field will be spending $20k on pitching, so they will be looking to save salary on hitting. This greatly changes which stacks will be chalk. On FD, projections will guide chalk, whereas value will drive ownership on DK.
Chalk Stacks – Cardinals vs. Hunter Gaddis
We usually target the Cardinals against lefties, but they’re just in such a juicy spot and might be underowned, despite being heavily owned.
They face Hunter Gaddis, who projects poorly for the rest of the season by THE BAT — 5.06 FIP, 1.72 HR/9 — because this guy struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark in the minors. He gave up 1.5 HR/9 in Triple-A, 1.4 in Double-A, and 1.8 in High-A on monster FB rates. That totals 1.5 HR/9 through 271.0 MiLB IP.
The Cardinals are not minor leaguers.
Since 2022, Paul Goldschmidt has a 12.3% barrel rate, but it’s Nolan Gorman who leads the team at 14.6%. Willson Contreras follows with an 11.8% rate; Paul DeJong, 10.5%; and Lars Nootbaar, 10.4%. Nolan Arenado is only at 7.9%, but he transcends Statcast. He does have a 42.2% FB rate against RHPs since 2022, but only a 36.4% hard-hit rate. Arenado isn’t elite, but he can get the job done in this spot if he fits the lineups.
The Cardinals are such a behemoth that we should want to target them in every format. They’re underowned enough to not cross them off of our list.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
