MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, September 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Well, would ya look at that- it’s already September. We’ve got just 1 month left in the MLB DFS grind for 2024, though I suspect plenty of weaklings out there have already bailed and set their sights on the NFL. MLB DFS at this stage of the season isn’t for the faint of heart, but if there are still contests paying out real dollars on DraftKings and FanDuel, so why stop grinding?
We’re looking at 9 games on the DraftKings main slate, while FanDuel has 10, including the BAL-COL extravaganza at Coors Field. We’re also dealing with some weather, so it looks like we’ll have to keep an eye on STL-NYY and CHC-WAS per Roth’s early morning report.
How should we stack ‘em up on this 1st day of September?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, September 1st
CHALK STACKS
Orioles at Cal Quantrill (FD only)
Mets at Garrett Crochet / White Sox bullpen
Play the Orioles on FanDuel, as an elite offense at Coors Field against a mediocre pitcher is generally a smart way to go. We aren’t afforded such luxuries over on DraftKings today, so we’ll have to take a different path. As has been the case all weekend, it looks like the Mets against the White Sox and their awful pitching staff will be the next best thing.
Garrett Crochet is the most dynamic arm Chicago can throw out there these days, but they’re taking a cautious approach with him. The left-hander hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches or lasted more than 4 innings in a start since the Carter administration, and something tells me he won’t get there today either. His last outing was cut short after just 4 pitches due to Chicago’s terrible weather management, so don’t look too far into that game in the game log. Crochet’s overall numbers this season remain elite, but he will allow the occasional home run to righties. RHBs have accounted for 15 of the 16 big flies served up by him on the year.
It just so happens that the Mets’ lineup profiles extremely well to deal with left-handed pitching. Some of these barrel rates against LHP on the season jump off the page:
- J.D. Martinez – 21.2%
- Pete Alonso – 14%
- Francisco Lindor – 17.1%
- Mark Vientos – 13.7%
- Harrison Bader – 11%
Starling Marte and Luis Torrens even have excellent numbers against southpaws in more limited samples, while Brandon Nimmo (.356 wOBA, .184 ISO) has been terrific in lefty-lefty spots. I suppose the one weak spot would be Jose Iglesias, an old man with a .405 wOBA vs. lefties, somehow.
We can hope the Mets do a little damage against Crochet before he gives way to the worst collection of relievers in the sport. The White Sox bullpen has been horrific all year, so I’m comfortable rostering everyone here without concern about handedness. The Mets’ 4.82 implied run total is somewhat high, but it’s also low enough to where I think oddsmakers might be giving Crochet a decent amount of respect.
Our stack pOWN% and Opto% numbers aren’t quite working as I’m writing this, but I’m expecting New York to be the most popular offense to stack on DK today. They’ll catch some attention on FD to a lesser extent. As of now I’m simply planning on playing them in all formats regardless of ownership, as the slate is large enough to where I doubt we’re looking at a team with a bunch of 30%-owned hitters.
PIVOT STACKS
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