MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, September 12th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a tiny 5-game main slate on our hands, likely thanks to a big NFL Thursday Night Football game. There are a few ways to get unique, so let’s talk about it.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, September 12th
HIGHEST GAME TOTAL STACKS
Yankees vs. Cooper Criswell
Red Sox at Nestor Cortes
According to our Top Stacks Tool, the Yankees are currently checking in at the highest pOWN% and Opto% on FanDuel while ranking 1st in pOWN% and 3rd in Opto% on DraftKings.
I really like the situation for them, so I can’t really argue with any of that. Opposing starter Cooper Criswell is a borderline “fine” real-life pitcher, but that’s about it. He’s struck out just 16% of hitters this year, does a modest job of keeping the ball on the ground, and he doesn’t give up a ton of barrels. However, he’s been prone to allowing some pop and baserunners vs. righties, yielding a .192 ISO and .352 wOBA. He’s been much better vs. lefties.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have never had a problem hitting subpar RHP. Judge has been in a slump lately but STILL owns a .350 ISO and .466 wOBA vs. RHP this year, while Stanton has logged a .286 ISO and .351 wOBA against them.
Let’s not forget about the Yankees lefties. They’re a different beast when everyone is healthy – and when the organization actually decides to recall Jasson Dominguez. The Martian hasn’t gone deep yet since he’s been back up with the club this month, but his time is surely coming. Criswell has only struck out 6% of lefties in the last 30 days, and he wasn’t good against them last year.
Add in Jazz Chisholm, Juan Soto, and the emergence of Austin Wells (.224 ISO, .359 wOBA vs. RHP this year), and this lineup is suddenly pretty scary. Criswell has been used in a variety of roles this year, but he’s only completed 5 innings once (and hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches) in a game since the end of July. The Sox bullpen isn’t very good, as they’ve allowed the 4th-most homers and own the AL’s 3rd-worst ERA.
Nestor Cortes is set to start for the Yankees. He was recently used as a bulk reliever (and he hated it), so let’s see how he will respond tonight. ERA estimators like him, as he owns a 3.69 xERA this season. It’s the same story for Cortes in 2024 – he gives up plenty of fly balls and power to righties.
The southpaw on the mound will likely take Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Wilyer Abreu out of the equation for the Sox, who have been about league average vs LHP this year. The Yankees bullpen has been much better than Boston’s this year, so that doesn’t help the Sox.
There is always one player in the Boston lineup that is terrifying for opposing LHP – and that’s Tyler O’Neill. This guy has incredibly drastic platoon splits. Against lefties this season, he owns massive numbers – .417 ISO, .481 wOBA, 40% fly-ball rate, and a whopping 24% barrel rate.
Our Top Stacks Tool has Boston with the 2nd-highest Opto% on FanDuel (5th-highest pOWN%) but the 5th-best Opto% on DraftKings and also in the middle of the slate in terms of pOWN%.
For Boston, I’ll single out some of the power bats and maybe have a secondary stack at most – but I would certainly have Tyler O’Neill in the player pool this evening (he’s just +260 to homer on BetMGM). This game is currently tied for the highest game total (on most sportsbooks) of the main slate, but I agree with most projections that the Yankees should do more of the scoring.
PIVOT STACK
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