MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 2nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
To Braves or not to Braves is the question over which many will agonize all summer. Don’t overthink it while others are doing so. Like, I don’t need to know how a plane stays in the air to enjoy traveling. I don’t waste my time with that anxiety. I use the time flying to enjoy a good book or some music, maybe a podcast I’m really into. My point is that there are more valuable ways to spend our finite amounts of time and energy.
Surround the Braves with leverage where we play them and maximize projections where we don’t. There’s a lot of decent pitching on this slate, so we should be able to find leverage there, and pivoting off of the higher-owned Braves pieces is fairly simple, as we’ll discuss today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, April 2nd
CHALK STACK
Braves at Garrett Crochet
Stay tuned for the weather for this one. It’s nasty in Chicago, but this is an interleague game, and Kevin Roth is saying that this could get pushed through with a late start. Stay tuned to him at the MLB Weather page and on Twitter.
If this does play out, I don’t care about the cold or how well Garrett Crochet looked against the Tigers. It’s the Braves against a lefty. Their projected lineup has had a collective 12.3% barrel rate against lefties since 2023. Seven guys in double-digits — Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and even Orlando Arcia and of course Ozzie Albies.
Crochet has a great pedigree, a wicked fastball-slider combo, and legitimately looked great in his first.
I don’t care.
Guaranteed Rate is a great park for homers. The wind is forecasted to blow out hard to center, and the Braves have the highest implied total on the board at 5.48 — the only total over 5.0 on the slate.
They should be the highest-owned stack, though, and this is where the Braves are always tricky. The way around this is probably by emphasizing the bottom of the order and the left-handed Olson with the power-speed of Michael Harris. Duvall is a huge pinch-hit risk and could go over-owned, while Acuna’s floor is zero because, well, baseball. The Olson-Harris-Arcia-Albies build is a way to get in on the lower end of the Braves’ projected ownership.
I’m probably prioritizing the Braves full stack and finding my leverage through pitching and my secondary stack. It’s a mid-sized slate, so we could be talking about 25%, so ignoring the Braves with fewer entries or going underweight on them in MME is perfectly reasonable.
Value Stack
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