MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 23rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We don’t have to eliminate chalk from our player pools to be successful at DFS. We can have a high EV with chalk if we play it correctly. Today, the 500-lb. gorilla in the room is the CGSO ceiling of Pablo Lopez with the Astros in an excellent run-scoring environment. But hey, the Padres, Rockies, and Cubs are also in high-scoring environments. Why not them? The Twins are cheap against a bum. Why not them? The Orioles are really good and will be low owned, despite a ballpark bump. Why not them? And there is pitching after Lopez going over-owned. Why not target those pitchers with our stacks?
Let’s cover all of this.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, April 23rd
CHALK STACKS
Astros at Jordan Wicks
Padres at Ryan Feltner
Early runs of SimLabs currently has us getting extreme exposure to the Astros because the wind is forecasted to blow out of Wrigley at 10-15 MPH. And the Astros get to face a higher-contact starter in Jordan Wicks who isn’t projected to be a strikeout pitcher by THE BAT, ZiPS, or ATC models. The only thing that suppresses his contact rate is his terrible command. The Astros should get a ton of good wood on the ball against a pitcher like this under any circumstances, but the fly-ball hitters should crush this ground-ball pitcher with an 8% barrel rate allowed.
The Astros have an entire lineup of fly-ball hitters, other than Jeremy Pena (17.6% against LHP) and Mauricio Dubon (22%). Everyone else is over 27%. Even Alex Bregman and his 4.6% barrel rate should play, with his 30.4% fly-ball rate and 23.7% lin- drive rate on a 47.9% hard-hit rate. This environment has Coors Field upside for Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve. But don’t forget about the other high barrel rates against LHP, Chas McCormick (13.9%), Jose Abreu (12.1%), and Yainer Diaz (10.9%).
It looks like the Astros are gonna be chalk, but it is difficult on DraftKings to afford them with Pablo Lopez, who should be mega-chalk. And it’s borderline insane to absorb the Lopez chalk with this Astros chalk. So, playing the Astros will require creativity at SP, especially in single-entry and 3-max contests where Lopez could push 60% and the Astros could be in the 30% range.
In actual Coors Field, the Padres come in to face Ryan Feltner without Manny Machado. I was thinking that his absence with the #WrigleyWind would depress the Padres pOWN%, but they’re trending towards being the team with the 2nd-highest ownership.
Feltner is a decent pitcher though. He has the strikeout stuff in general but has only shown it in great strikeout matchups. This isn’t one of them, as the Padres are a high-contact lineup.
With the uptick in strikeout rate from 18.5% in 2023 to 27.4% this season has come Feltner getting hit harder when he’s been hit:
37.6% hard-hit rate up to 41.7%
4.5% barrel rate up to 8.3%
.335 wOBA allowed up to .361
.095 ISO allowed up to .198
These changes should play into the Padres’ hands, though Feltner has been frustrating to stack against to start his career.
Fernando Tatis is the only barrel rate in this lineup over 10% against RHP, but Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, and Graham Pauley are all fly-ball hitters. Add the strong power-speed combo of Ha-seong Kim with Xander Bogaerts leading off (along with 2B eligibility), and the full stack is simple to make. The power upside is capped, and the Padres’ 5.22 implied run total is low for Coors, but this is still Coors, and the Rockies bullpen is still bad, so this stack could pay off.
What’s difficult is going overweight on both the Astros and Padres, despite them both being road teams with high totals. They will cost near-50% of our portfolios to do so. There are a lot of spots to attack, so I’d suggest going underweight on one or the other in MME. I agree with SimLabs that we go overweight on the Astros in MME and target them over Lopez in single-entry tournaments.
PIVOT STACKS
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