MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, August 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
No full stacks are projected for more than 8% pOWN%, so we can almost throw ownership concerns out the window for tonight. That said, we should always be conscious of relative ownership. Three offenses with a lot of potential are looking to be under-owned. We’ll discuss those teams in this space and look to two spots for maximum leverage where we’re playing chalky pitching.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, August 20th
TOP STACK
Yankees vs. Matthew Boyd
With no chalk, I’m looking at the Yankees righties to smash the face of Matthew Boyd in. Boyd has allowed 1.66 HR/9 over his career, including a 10% barrel rate to righties across 240 batters faced in 2023.
Queue up all of the Aaron Judge.
I want all of the righties against Boyd in this ceiling spot — Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe — all the way down to Jose Trevino, DJ LeMahieu, and Oswald Peraza.
Judge and Stanton lead the way. Judge’s 31.1% barrel rate against lefties is just silly, while Stanton’s 11.3% rate is totally fine — even in a down year. If we have the cash, Juan Soto has a 17.6% rate against lefties, but I’m prioritizing Judge and his 82% hard-hit and 37.7% fly-ball rate.
Torres is an interesting case. He’s not very good, but his fly-ball rate against lefties is a team-high 41%. Trevino has a 31.1% fly-ball rate against lefties. These can go a long way in Yankee Stadium — literally and figuratively speaking.
I’m looking at the Yankees in all formats, sprinkling in some Soto pivots over Judge in some MME lineups. I think the only Yankee I’m avoiding is lefty Alex Verdugo.
Without chalk on this slate, the argument against the Yankees is that the Guardians bullpen is the best in baseball, so they’ll really have to get to Boyd. For this, I might not go to the Yankees in single entry, considering two other teams to replace them.
PIVOT STACKS
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