MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, August 6th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
I’m keeping a tighter stack pool tonight and not playing more than 20 lineups because this isn’t a great slate to play everyone. That said, there are about a dozen legit spots that could break this big slate. And the best spot might not be the most obvious one.
We also have a very busy weather day, so be sure to check out the MLB Weather page leading up to lock.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, August 6th
CHALK STACK
Mets at Kyle Freeland
The Mets’ active roster is just behind the Red Sox and Yankees for the best wRC+ in baseball (120), and they’re in Coors Field facing Kyle Freeland tonight. Their 6.22 implied total is the highest on the slate by over half a run, and their projected lineup has a 10.8% barrel rate against lefties.
The Mets are the chalk.
Freeland has always been bad, but he’s becoming a gas can version of himself; that’s something to behold this season, where he’s given up a slate-worst 10.2% barrel rate with a 50.5% hard-hit rate on an 82% contact rate. His barrel rate and 5.19 xERA suggest that his 1.37 HR/9 allowed is pretty lucky. And the Mets bring a ton of high barrel rates against lefties to force the hand of regression:
J.D. Martinez, 16.5%
Francisco Lindor, 15.7%
Pete Alonso, 15.4%
Francisco Alvarez, 12.5%
Mark Vientos, 12.3%
Harrison Bader, 9.9%
Add the lefty-lefty power of Brandon Nimmo and the cheap 7.5% barrel rate of Tyrone Taylor with the .186 ISO of Jose Iglesias (51 PAs) against lefties, and we can for damn sure play everyone here.
And we should play them aggressively.
Getting overweight on the Mets won’t be cheap. Currently looking at 12-14% pOWN%, it’s gonna cost us a quarter of our portfolio in MME, but they’re probably worth it.
The Mets aren’t at the top of my list for single entry because of ownership, but they’re in the pool. I think there are 3-4 other spots on this slate that carry similar appeal, all things considered.
TOP STACKS
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