MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
I love this slate, but I don’t love the higher-owned stacks. Good for us is that there is no true chalk, but we should be conscious of teams who may be over-owned and teams who may be under-owned because there’s a lot of both on this slate.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, July 30th
CHALKY STACKS
Mariners at James Paxton
Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin
Royals at Jonathan Cannon
The Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Royals are projected to be the top-owned teams in the 10% pOWN range, and – I’m gonna keep it real – I don’t like it.
Sure, James Paxton isn’t very good, and the Mariners have a lot of power. Paxton can’t find strikeouts anymore and is walking a ton of guys, and you get to the Mariners by striking them out.
But Paxton hasn’t really given up a ton of power this season. His 8.3% barrel rate allowed isn’t low, but it isn’t really worthy of 10% ownership until we expand to see that the 9.4% rate allowed to righties is almost identical to the 9.3% rate he surrendered in 2023.
It’s safe to say that the Mariners might be over-owned, but that doesn’t mean we can’t attack Paxton with these righties with high barrel rates against lefties:
Dylan Moore, 16.1%
Cal Raleigh, 15.4%
Randy Arozarena, 13.5%
Tyler Locklear (16 PAs), 11.1%
Mitch Garver, 9.7%
Victor Robles (82 PAs), 8.2%
I mean, there are stacks there. There are mighty stacks there. But how much volume are we gonna get from Paxton? I highly doubt that the Red Sox are gonna let him get shelled for 7 runs in 5 IP.
At lower pOWN% on the Mariners side and more pOWN% on the Paxton side, I’d say hit the gas on the Mariners, but without a leg up on the field, I’m not enthusiastic about stacking them.
That said, we should have MME exposure to Seattle. They’re just not high on my list for single entry or my three small-field lineups.
Next up in the maybe over-owned category is the Diamondbacks without Christian Walker. A team that can crush left-handed pitching against the long leash of the terrible Patrick Corbin.
I’m lower on the Diamondbacks than the field simply because – despite the high quality of power that exists in Eugenio Suarez, Ketel Marte, and Lourdes Gurriel – there isn’t a high quantity of power bats to attack Corbin. Normally, this isn’t a problem because Corbin’s given up 48 homers since 2023 (1.45 HR/9) on a 9.1% barrel rate while not missing bats. But I hate stacking in Chase Field without a lot of bats to choose from and the stack being higher-owned when the roof is closed. The ownership cost is just too high.
I’m not gonna tell you that fully stacking against Corbin is ever a bad play. I’m just not doing it because it’ll cost too many lineups to go overweight and there’s a lot of dud potential here. I prefer Suarez, Marte, and Gurriel as one-offs or as two-man mini-stacks.
I prefer to take on a pinch less pOWN% with the Royals against Jonathan Cannon. Cannon hasn’t surrendered much power, but he does surrender a ton of contact. His 80.4% contact rate is something to attack in a hitter-friendly park with decent weather for hitting by utilizing the high barrel rates against righties of:
Bobby Witt, 12.6%
MJ Melendez, 11.6%
Salvador Perez, 11.2%
Vinnie Pasquantino, 8.2%
Michael Massey, 8.1%
We can play anyone against a below-average high-contact pitcher in Guaranteed Rate when it’s 83 degrees with a 69-degree dew point, but these are the primary bats that we wanna jam in.
The White Sox bullpen is still bad. Like, still on the bad end of the margins, but it hasn’t printed money as it did earlier in the season. Again, still bad, but we’re talking 1.12 HR/9 allowed by the active members instead of ~1.50.
Of these three high-owned stacks, I prefer the Royals the most, but Cannon is only giving up a 4.7% barrel rate to righties, so I’m more into just mini-stacking Melendez, Pasquantino, and Massey against the 10.1% rate he surrenders to lefties. Witt and Perez are never bad plays in a high-scoring environment. I’ll have exposure to them in the 5-man Royals stacks in my cheap 20-lineup build. But I might not have a full Royals stack in my mid-stakes small-field builds.
TOP STACKS
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