MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, September 5
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Ownership should be fairly spread out on this slate, according to early returns, but this should enhance interest in the Cubs and Giants in a Wrigley wind game along with the Braves becuase they’re the Braves. I don’t think we need to mess around with Giants pinch-hit risks today, so I omitted them, but they’re a great gamble. We’re gonna look at the Cubs and Braves in a tier by themselves, a simple pivot, and a crazy-obvious leverage spot. Overall, the absence of true chalk might make this a fairly simple slate to analyze.
Wrigley Wind and Braves Stacks – Cubs vs. Giants Bullpen and Braves vs. Miles Mikolas
At first pitch, it’s gonna be 83 degrees with a 71-degree dew point and the wind blowing out to left in the 15-mph range at Wrigley. Bombs away.
Don’t overthink this. No matter who the Giants trot out there to open, just play the damn Cubs. Ryan Walker or Jakob Junis to open? Play the Cubs. Sean Manaea as the projected long reliever? Play the Cubs. Which righties are rested versus which lefties are rested? Play the frickin’ Cubs in this ultra environment.
Target the high barrel rates of Christopher Morel (14.5%), Dansby Swanson (11.4%), and Seiya Suzuki (9.5%). Target the flyball rates of Cody Bellinger (30.1%), Yan Gomes (29.4%), and Jeimer Candelario (28.0%). And fill in with Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, and Nico Hoerner as you need to. If Patrick Wisdom cracks the lineup, his power is my next target after Morel.
Just play the Cubs.
Where we’re not playing the Cubs, the Braves are still in play, as they would be with any slate. Miles Mikolas isn’t a terrible real-life pitcher, but he’s had struggles with power prevention just because he gives up so much contact. And 85.4% contact rate this season.
The temp is gonna be 83 degrees with a dew point in the mid-60’s in Atlanta and the Braves just pack so much power into their contact. Give them a high frequency of contact and we should see a very high quantity of power.
I shouldn’t need to enumerate the Braves bats. Their collective projected lineup has a 12.1% barrel rate against righties. Only Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, and Orlando Arcia are under 10%. And of them, Harris has had a 9.2% rate and Albies has 36.9% flyball and line drive rates. This whole lineup is in play with the Cubs in all formats, despite the chalk, however you can fit them in.
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