MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 9
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a handful of afternoon games on the board for this Wednesday, but the main evening slate is still a hefty 9-gamer. This isn’t a particularly deep pitching slate, which could lead to concentrated ownership on the arms with things more spread out on the hitting side.
There are still a few obvious spots to target with bats, though I think you can cast a wider net with your stacks. The presumed chalk does look like good chalk, but there are still some ways to get different enough. How should we stack ‘em up on a Wednesday night?
Chalk Stack – Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles
We’ve been picking on Jordan Lyles all season long, and Fenway Park is the best hitters park on a non-Coors slate. It should come as no surprise to see that Boston’s 6.32 implied run total is the highest on the night.
Lyles has had some success at times over the years, but there hasn’t been much to write home about this season. The right-hander has already allowed 23 home runs, while his strikeout rate is barely north of 16%. His fly ball rate is pushing 50%, his SIERA is sitting at an unsightly 5.20, and he’s been barreled up more than 10% of the time. Lyles has had some bad luck with regard to stranding runners (55.7%), while his control (6.7% walks) is fine. Just about every other number, however, makes him look like a legitimate gas can.
Boston’s collective 8.7% barrel rate against lefties isn’t exactly Bravesian, but Triston Casas (16.2%), Rafael Devers (13.5%), and Adam Duvall (12.5%) have all done damage. Ditto for newcomer Luis Urias (9.8%), albeit in a much smaller sample.
The Red Sox’ lefty-heavy lineup profiles well against Lyles, a guy who’s allowed a .359 wOBA with 13 homers to lefties this season. Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, and Alex Verdugo stand out as terrific options, either as one-offs or as a part of your full Boston stacks. Pablo Reyes and Reese McGuire are the salary-savers that’ll help you afford the pricier bats.
It’s a great spot, and they’ll likely be popular as a result. The Red Sox are currently checking in with about 14% stack ownership on DraftKings and 18% stack ownership on FanDuel, which is the top mark on both sites. Their chances of being the optimal stack are still high (12% DK, 13% FD), though that’s technically negative leverage.
So, if you’re stacking the Red Sox in tournaments, either go off the board with your secondary stack or pair them with more contrarian pitchers. The slate is large enough to where I don’t think Boston is a fade based purely on their pOWN%.
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