MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 15th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a split baseball schedule for Wednesday. DraftKings and FanDuel are rolling with 7-game main slates that start at 7:10 PM ET. There are some minor weather concerns across the league, but nothing that looks too impactful. Be sure to stay tuned to the MLB Weather page for Kevin Roth’s most up-to-date forecast.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, May 15th
“CHALK” STACKS
Rangers vs. Carlos Carrasco
Cardinals at Griffin Canning
After consecutive 12-game main slates the last two days, we have a smaller 7-game slate for Wednesday. This should lead to more condensed ownership, but I am still not sure we have a true “chalk” offense. This is especially true on FanDuel, where no stack projects for more than 12% ownership and we currently have three stacks clustered up top between 11% and 12%.
The highest implied run totals on the board belong to the Astros and Braves, but the top-heavy nature of those two stacks leads to chalky studs but not necessarily a chalky stack.
The Rangers look to be in a great spot against the fading skills of Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has managed just 17.4% strikeouts while walking 9.6% of batters this season. He has allowed hard contact and power to both sides of the plate, with a .223 ISO and 1.56 HR/9 allowed. The Rangers have not been the same elite offense this season as they have dealt with some injuries, but most of their struggles have come against LHP. Their 109 wRC+ and .326 wOBA versus RHP both rank 6th in MLB.
Corey Seager has been a culprit of the Rangers decline, as his .298 wOBA would be the lowest of his very successful career by a significant margin. His hard hits are down in 2024, but his plate skills are still in line with his career marks. I fully expect him to get back to his elite production in short order. He has homered 3 times in his last 8 games, including one yesterday, so he may already be back.
Marcus Semien remains productive atop the lineup. Adolis Garcia has an excellent .204 ISO against RHP this season, with an outstanding 14.7% barrel rate. Nathaniel Lowe was delayed by injury to begin the season, but he has a .436 wOBA in a limited sample versus RHP this season. Josh Smith has filled in admirably for the injured Josh Jung at the hot corner, posting an excellent .188 ISO against RHP this season.
The Rangers are currently showing the 2nd-highest pOWN% on DK and 3rd-highest pOWN% on FD, but their Opto% is checking in well ahead of their pOWN% on both sites. They will be a priority as my top overall stack of the slate.
The Cardinals may finally be showing signs of life this season, as they have plated 17 runs in the first 2 games of the Angels series. Their season-long numbers leave much to be desired, but they seem to be trending in the right direction.
They get a matchup against Griffin Canning, who has had a disastrous start to the season himself. Canning has been lit up for a 5.75 ERA through 8 starts, and underlying metrics are not too kind either. SIERA (4.90) and xERA (5.01) believe he has been slightly better than his top-line results but still well below a league-average pitcher. His strikeouts are all the way down at 16.3%, and the walks are up at 8.4%. Contact against him has been of extremely high quality, as he has surrendered a 40.8% hard-hit rate and a 10.8% barrel rate.
The Cardinals have extremely attractive salaries on both sites due to their massive struggles to begin the season. No hitter is priced above $4,300 on DK, and no one is above $2,900 on FD. Their implied team total of roughly 4.4 runs does not stand out among the top teams on the slate, but it certainly doesn’t look so bad when we consider their salaries.
Paul Goldschmidt appears to have turned a corner after a dreadful start, as he has hit safely in his last 4 games and has multiple hits in 2 of those. Nolan Arenado remains one of the Redbirds’ most productive hitters, even if the power is lagging behind a little this season. Matt Carpenter and Lars Nootbaar have returned to give the lineup some more depth and both swing from the left side of the plate, where Canning has really struggled this season. Nolan Gorman continues to display massive power (14.8% barrel rate vs. RHP) with way too much swing-and-miss (32.9% strikeouts).
The Cardinals are currently projected to be the highest-owned stack on DK, and they are in that cluster of the top three on FD. Their Opto% exceeds their pOWN% on both sites, and their cheap salaries allow you to spend up for pitching. It is hard to argue against targeting some of these Cardinals bats.
PIVOT STACK
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