MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 25th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re coming down to the wire! Plenty of playoff implications are on the line, while some other teams have already partied their way through the week. A sweet little 9-game slate is on tap for Wednesday. Let’s dive into the numbers.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, September 25th
CHALK STACK
Cardinals at Austin Gomber
We have a Coors Field game on our hands, which unsurprisingly has the highest game total of the night. Gomber’s 5.21 xERA tells us that he hasn’t been very good this season, and that number is much higher than his actual ERA.
We have a pretty big main slate on tap, and although our Top Stacks Tool tabs the Cardinals as the chalk, I don’t think their ownership will get ridiculously out of control.
St. Louis has been trending in the right direction against southpaws. They rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. LHP across the entire season, but in a more recent (but respectable) sample size, they rank 11th since the beginning of August.
The Cards are really affordable on FanDuel, with no individual hitter priced higher than $3,500. That’s a big deal to me because I like the high-end pitching options of either Chris Sale or Zac Gallen quite a bit.
We were talking about baseball slang in the RotoGrinders MLB Discord channel last week. Well, here’s one for ya – Jordan Walker has been a big “Quadruple-A Player” over the last 1.5 seasons or so, meaning he’s been great in the minors but bad at the MLB level.
But if you’re into recent form and you’re buying on talent, Walker has finally injected a bit of life into this lineup since he’s been recalled, with 5 home runs in September and a .438 ISO/.479 wOBA in his last 18 PAs vs. LHP. Masyn Winn has continued his fantastic 2024 and although Nolan Arenado has been bad this season, he’s no stranger to hitting at Coors!
Of course, after Gomber departs, St. Louis has a chance to feast on a bad bullpen. I don’t mind the Cardinals at all, even though they will be popular. I think I slightly prefer them more on FanDuel due to the price.
OPTO STACK
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