MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/26/22
Small four game main slate to begin the week and weather shouldn’t be a concern today.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CIN/PIT has a few spotty showers but the coverage is low so any kind of delay isn’t very likely. The outdoor games will be in the 60s and BAL/BOS will see 10mph winds out to center while CIN/PIT and ATL/WSH will see 8mph crosswinds. NYY/TOR is the lone dome game.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CIN/PIT are +8.3% while total runs for BAL/BOS are +10.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nelson Cruz is still dealing with eye inflammation and will remain out and even when he’s healthy he’ll probably just be a pinch hitter these final games. CJ Abrams has moved up to 2nd in the order for WSH moving Luis Garcia down to 6th and Miguel Andujar will make his Pirates debut batting 3rd with Rodolfo Castro getting a breather. Tommy Pham is getting the day off and Enrique Hernandez will hit leadoff for BOS and the Braves are moving Michael Harris to cleanup.
The Braves and Red Sox are my favorite stacks today while the Orioles, Pirates, and Jays round out my top five.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I like stacking four of the top five in the Braves order but if you want to go cheaper I like the price of William Contreras ($3,100) and Eddie Rosario ($2,100).
Alex Verdugo ($2,700) is the first BOS bat I’m targeting while Hernandez, Martinez, and Casas are all solid value plays too. On the other side of that game I like using a couple bats out of Mullins, Rutschman, Henderson, or Santander who are all $3.1k or cheaper with the platoon advantage.
The Pirates also offer some great value starting with Miguel Andujar ($2,000) and Jack Suwinski ($2,200) while Reynolds, Cruz, and Hayes are all fine options for cheap. A few other bats I like for the price today include Lane Thomas ($2,500), CJ Abrams ($2,100), Luis Garcia ($2,500), Alejandro Kirk ($2,500), Cal Mitchell ($2,100), and Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite value plays are Miguel Andujar ($2,000) and Jack Suwinski ($2,300) for PIT while Ke’Bryan Hayes ($3,300) and Cal Mitchell ($2,100) are other fine options. For ATL Eddie Rosario ($2,500) is my favorite value play while Michael Harris ($4,700) and Matt Olson ($4,500) are top plays for me hitting 4th and 5th.
Triston Casas ($2,100) and Rougned Odor ($2,400) are my favorite value options from BOS and BAL while Enrique Hernandez ($3,100), Alex Verdugo ($4,100), Austin Hays ($3,200) and Gunnar Henderson ($3,900) are my next favorite targets from that game.
Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,900) remains super cheap and is in play even in a tough matchup with Gausman while CJ Abrams ($2,100), Lane Thomas ($3,400), Luke Voit ($3,300), and Cesar Hernandez ($2,700) are some other value options for WSH.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn