MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/20/2022
We have a solid 8-game slate to start the week with great weather across the country along with a couple big bats getting hurt yesterday and a couple guys coming off the IL today.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The best hitting weather games will be SFG/ATL & TOR/CHW with both looking at temps in the mid to high 80’s along with 30%+ humidity with KCR/LAA close behind with high 70’s temps and similar humidity. CHC/PIT, DET/BOS, & ARI/SDP will all be very humid at 50-60% with all having similar temps in the high 60s – low 70s. NYY/TBR and STL/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SFG/ATL are +29.1% while total runs for TOR/CHW are +12.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Tim Anderson is back off the IL at leadoff for the White Sox and Jeimer Candelario will return for Detroit and the Pirates are calling up shortstop Oneil Cruz and is on my radar for value at minimum price on both sites. Manny Machado sprained his ankle yesterday and is out indefinitely so look for Kim, Alcantara, and Abrams to cover SS/3B and Trent Grisham moves to the leadoff spot tonight. Tyler ONeill also left early yesterday with hamstring tightness and just landed on the IL but I’m not looking to target any Cardinals against Burnes today.
The Red Sox are my favorite stack today at home against the righty Faedo who’s coming off a 7 ER start and has one of the tougher matchup in baseball at Fenway today. The Angels are my next favorite stack at home in nice hitting weather against the lefty Bubic who has allowed 7 ER over his last two starts. Some of the best hitting weather will be in Chicago where the Blue Jays face Lynn who was pretty bad in his return last game with 10 hits allowed and 3 ER against the Tigers and today he has a much taller task so Toronto is looking like a solid stack option. Other stacks to consider include the Cubs, Pirates, Tigers, and Braves.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m locking in Mike Trout for just $4,200 and Taylor Ward for $3,000 as I want some Angels exposure and the 1-2 hitters with the platoon advantage on Bubic at those prices are my favorite way to go while Matt Duffy ($2,300) and Luis Rengifo ($2,000) are other extremely cheap options to add to the stack and Shohei Ohtani is very affordable at just $3,600. Jarren Duran didn’t start yesterday against a righty but assuming he’s back in there at leadoff today I like him a lot for $2,700 to help fit in Rafael Devers ($4,400) and another Red Sox bat or two. The Pirates have some nice value options today against Kilian with Jack Suwinski my favorite guy to target at just $2,200 coming off a 3 HR game yesterday and Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,600 while Oneil Cruz will be on my radar if he hits high in the order at minimum price. Some other cheap FD bats to consider today include Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), Raimel Tapia ($2,000), Matt Olson ($3,200), Javier Baez ($2,700), Robbie Grossman ($2,500), Riley Greene ($2,800), Trent Grisham ($2,900), and Rafael Ortega ($2,000).
Looking at DraftKings I have to start with Jack Suwinski ($2,200) and Riley Greene ($2,100) with both at basically minimum price and my favorite value plays of the day there and if you need even more extreme value I like Robbie Grossman ($2,300), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700), and Oneil Cruz ($2,000). With that much value in play it should be no problem fitting in Mike Trout at $5,600 and Taylor Ward is still at a great price of $3,900. It should also be pretty easy to fit in Rafael Devers ($5,700) while Jarren Duran ($3,400) and Alex Verdugo ($3,500) are my next favorite Red Sox plays for the price. More DK bats I like for the price are Eric Hosmer ($3,200), Nomar Mazara ($2,000), Matt Duffy ($2,500), Raimel Tapia ($2,600), Hunter Renfroe ($3,500), Trent Grisham ($3,400), and Rafael Ortega ($2,200).
There are some great pitchers going tonight but I have to go with Gerrit Cole as my SP1 on both sites as he’s dominated this matchup against the Rays twice already this season with 17 strikeouts and just 1 ER and his opponent Shane McClanahan is a great GPP option who has also done well in his two previous starts against the Yankees this season but the Rays lineup just doesn’t scare me like the Yankees lineup does so I’m going with Cole in cash games. We still have a lot of great options left in Burnes, Darvish, Fried, Mikolas and Berrios and for cheap I like Syndergaard and Brubaker but right now I’m leaning Burnes as my SP2 on DK as he’s under $10k and shutout STL a few starts ago with 11 K’s.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn