MLB DFS Projections Primer: Wednesday, September 9th
MLB daily fantasy sports are back tonight for another exciting slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we provide a trio of top picks based on our MLB DFS projections and rankings that will help you identify some top pitching targets. Utilizing advanced stats from our PlateIQ tool, let’s take a look at some high potential options.
Today’s PlateQ Top DFS Pitchers
Trevor Bauer
DraftKings Salary: $10,900
FanDuel Salary: $10,800
Yahoo Salary: $53
Overall PlateIQ Score: 70.69
PlateIQ K Score: 82.654444444444
PlateIQ Contact Score: 43.0532162375
PlateIQ Recent Form: 52.7973094
DraftKings DFS Projection: 18.65
Opponent: CHC
Bauer is one of the most expensive pitchers on the slate, and another one happens to be on the other side of this game too (Yu can bet we will talk about him in a second). Not only do these two guys have the highest strikeout expectation on the slate, but they are also pitching in extremely favorable pitching conditions tonight in Wrigley Field. According to RotoGrinders meteorologist, Kevin Roth, there are 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center and temperatures are only in the 60’s.
While the Cubs have plenty of potent bats, they also have several high strikeout bats too. Based on the projected lineup we have over here at RotoGrinders, I see five players in this lineup that have a strikeout rate of at least 24% against RHP since the start of 2019. Bauer himself has struck out 31.8% of righties and 26% of lefties since the start of 2019. And those aforementioned pitching conditions will go a long way towards helping suppress runs when these powerful Cubs bats do put the ball in play.
All things being equal, I would prefer Darvish. But Bauer is cheaper on all sites and probably comes with lower ownership too. If you want to get real froggy, you can pair the two together on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings and Yahoo.
Yu Darvish
DraftKings Salary: $11,500
FanDuel Salary: $11,500
Yahoo Salary: $60
Overall PlateIQ Score: 68.62
PlateIQ K Score: 76.936333333333
PlateIQ Contact Score: 44.39701515
PlateIQ Recent Form: 59.11768123
DraftKings DFS Projection: 14.95
Opponent: CIN
Since essentially the start of June 2019, Yu has been a certified stud. Check out these numbers over that span:
26 starts, 162.1 IP, 34.2% K%, 14.2% SwStr%, 3.2% BB%, 2.83 ERA, 2.81 SIERA, 41.8% GB%, 34.5% FB%, 34% Hard%
To put it in simpler terms, he has 214 strikeouts and just 20 walks over those 26 starts. That is just absurd!
Not only does he get the same friendly pitching conditions that we talked about above with Bauer, but this Reds offense isn’t anything to write home about either. Against RHP this season, they rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ (91) and wOBA (.314). They do have a .192 ISO (tied for seventh), but two of their best bats against RHP are also righties (Suarez & Castellanos). Yu has been utterly dominant against righties since the start of 2019 (and surely better since June of 2019), striking out 36.8% of them while only allowing a .265 wOBA and .153.
Oh, and did I mention the weather? Yes, I believe I did!
If you have the funds to pay up at pitcher tonight, I think you have to start with Yu.
Dane Dunning
DraftKings Salary: $6,500
FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Yahoo Salary: $31
Overall PlateIQ Score: 64.81
PlateIQ K Score: 66.963333333333
PlateIQ Contact Score: 54.196280525
PlateIQ Recent Form: 59.94498723
DraftKings DFS Projection: 10.53
Opponent: PIT
So far, the hype surrounding Dunning has been real. Through these first three starts of his career, here is the line he has posted:
14 IP, 30.5% K%, 17.5% SwStr%, 10.2% BB%, 3.86 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 50% GB%, 26.5% FB%, 34.3% Hard%
While I absolutely love that combination of strikeouts and groundballs, it isn’t all flowers and roses. The control has been a bit of an issue. While that didn’t seem to be a problem at his first handful of stops in the low levels of the minor leagues, the BB% was up at 8.8% in AA.
But it is the 14 innings that has kept his upside in check a little bit, as the White Sox have handled him with kid gloves so far. His pitch count through these first three starts has been 73 > 79 > 88. It was a positive sign to see him get up to 88 in that most recent start, so hopefully we could be looking at mid 90’s if he is cruising.
And the best part is, it is hard to envision a better matchup than Pittsburgh. This projected lineup is littered with low power bats (the main exception being Josh Bell) that have high strikeout rates and hit a lot of groundballs. That clearly fits right into the hands of Dunning’s best attributes.
So if you are looking for a cheap pitcher on this Wednesday slate, I think Dunning is your guy.