MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/5/22
We have a six game main slate for Labor Day and excellent weather in every outdoor game and hopefully wherever you are reading this so you’re able to enjoy the holiday outside! (it’s raining here in Rochester so I’m jealous).
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat. We are also always looking to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
With no rain to worry about tonight, so let’s look at heat and wind:
- ARI/SD will be in the mid 80s with 6-9mph winds blowing left to right and humidity in the mid 50%.
- CLE/KC will be in the mid to high 70s with ~5mph winds blowing in and high humidity between 60 and 70%.
- DET/LAA is the hottest game of the day with temps starting in the 90s and slowing falling to the low 80s with a slight breeze blowing out and 45-60% humidity.
- SF/LAD will be in the mid 80s with 6-11mph winds blowing out and humidity around 50%.
CHW/SEA and TEX/HOU are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ARI/SD are +38%, while total runs for SF/LAD are +3.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Luis Robert will return to the lineup today but we won’t see Miguel Cabrera for a few games as he landed on the IL with a left biceps strain. Wil Myers left yesterday’s game early with neck tightness and will sit today along with Brandon Drury for another game after being hit in the helmet a couple days ago. Austin Slater is questionable to return from his dislocated pinky and Gavin Lux will be out a few days after receiving a cortisone shot for his neck/upper back issue. Lastly the Mariners are giving Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Frazier days off.
The Padres and Angels are my top stacks today while the Astros, White Sox, and Dodgers are other stacks I like taking shots on.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I’m starting with a trio of Padres value bats in Jurickson Profar ($2,400), Josh Bell ($2,800), and Jake Cronenworth ($2,700). All three have the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson, who is making his MLB debut for ARI. If you can fit either Soto or Machado I’d go for it to complete the full stack. The Angels offer some nice value as well in Taylor Ward ($2,900), David Fletcher ($2,200), Luis Rengifo ($2,400), and Jo Adell ($2,100) with the order listed how I’d prioritize targeting them and Mike Trout ($4,100) should be fairly easy to fit in as well.
I also like some White Sox bats against the low strikeout lefty Gonzales with guys like Elvis Andrus ($2,500), Eloy Jimenez ($2,900), and Yasmani Grandal ($2,200) coming in at excellent prices. Luis Robert ($3,200), Jose Abreu ($3,600), and Andrew Vaughn ($3,000) are all very affordable as well, so depending on positional needs and salary available, I like using a couple bats from those seven guys.
Logan Webb isn’t usually a pitcher I like targeting bats against but he’s had troubles with the Dodgers twice this year with just four total strikeouts and 7 ER in 11 IP. I don’t mind using a couple LAD bats to fill in some spots in your lineup. Will Smith ($3,000), Max Muncy ($2,400), and Justin Turner ($3,000) are fine value options and between the expensive three of Betts, Turner, and Freeman I like Trea Turner the most as he’s very affordable at $3,600 and brings the most SB upside.
Looking at DraftKings my favorite overall play for the price is Taylor Ward at just $3,100 likely hitting 5th against the low strikeout lefty Alexander and if you want more Angels value David Fletcher ($3,100) and Jo Adell ($2,300) are fine options. The Padres are a bit more expensive compared to FD but I still like the prices of Profar ($4k) and Cronenworth ($3.9k) while Bell, Machado, and Soto aren’t priorities for me at their inflated prices.
Elvis Andrus ($2,800) and Yasmani Grandal ($2,900) remain excellent value bats for the White Sox with Jimenez ($4.2k), Abreu ($4.4k), and Vaughn ($3.8k) my next favorite bats for the price. The Dodgers are too expensive for me to want any of them in cash games against Webb but they should be a lower-owned stack in GPPs at their current prices.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn