MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/9/22
To end the week we have a big 12-game slate that could become 11 or even 10 games as a couple games have some serious rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAD/SDP is the riskiest game to me as SoCal will be hit by the outer bands of Tropical Storm Kay so the wind and rain threat alone gives a good chance for an early postponement and they could be hit with rain for most of the night anyways which would pretty much guarantee it. The risk has been lowered a bit on this game throughout the day but with so many other safer games I’d only consider players from it for GPPs.
CLE/MIN will see a long thin line of rain stretching diagonally southwest to northeast and if that line sets up over the ballpark we could see a postponement or a long delay. If the line sets up 5-10 miles north or south or pretty much anywhere else but the ballpark the game should play fine so if you plan on using anyone in this game make sure to check closer to lock to see how the risk and movement of that line of rain has changed.
ARI/COL might see a tiny bit a rain around the general area but it shouldn’t be enough for concern of the game being played and today’s dome games are TOR/TEX, LAA/HOU, CIN/MIL, and ATL/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for BOS/BAL are +10% while total runs for CLE/MIN are -3.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Rays’ Wander Franco is with the team in NY and will be activated from the IL today (and he’s just $300 on Fanduel!!!!!) while the Yankees keep getting hit with injuries as DJ LeMahieu landed on the IL yesterday joining Anthony Rizzo. Giancarlo Stanton was able to pinch-hit yesterday but he remains out of the starting lineup today while Josh Donaldson is expected to return from the paternity list tomorrow.
Teoscar Hernandez is also still on the paternity list and expected to return tomorrow while Lourdes Gurriel is headed to the IL with a hamstring injury and also in that game look for newly promoted Josh Jung to start right away for the Rangers. Luis Robert remains out with his hand/wrist issues along with Max Kepler with his hip injury and Bryce Harper is getting a day off for Philly.
We’re back in Coors field so the Rockies are my top stack today facing the mediocre righty Davies and although the Diamondbacks face a tougher opponent in Marquez they are still my second favorite stack of the day. Outside of Coors the Phillies are my next favorite stack at home against the lefty Corbin who to his credit has been great over his last couple starts but he’s still a low strikeout pitcher who is blowup prone including a 6 ER demolition by this Phillies team about a month ago. The White Sox were my top stack yesterday and dropped 14 runs and although I don’t expect double digit runs I think they put up a nice number again today making them a top five stack for me while the Royals, Blue Jays, Astros, and Orioles are other stacks I’d consider today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel it’s going to be hard to not use four Rockies bats as they have five great value options before even considering CJ Cron ($3,700). My favorite COL bat is Ryan McMahon ($2,800) at the leadoff spot and I like stacking Brendan Rodgers ($2,900) with him while Charlie Blackmon ($3,100), Randal Grichuk ($3,000), Yonathan Daza ($2,700), and Michael Toglia ($2,800) should all be in consideration for your main builds. The Diamondbacks are priced up a bit but I still really like the price of Ketel Marte ($2,800) while Daulton Varsho ($3,500), Josh Rojas ($3,400), Corbin Carroll ($3,300), and Jake McCarthy ($3,500) are all pretty affordable with the order I listed them being how I’d rank them in priority for cash games.
I definitely want some Phillies righties in my main build starting with Rhys Hoskins ($2,900) and Alec Bohm ($2,900) at excellent prices coming off big games in a much tougher matchup and speaking of coming off big games Yoan Moncada ($2,200) had five hits including 2 HRs yesterday and is still almost minimum price. Elvis Andrus ($2,300) also homered yesterday and is a fine value option at the SS position while Eloy Jimenez ($2,700) has HRs in each of his last two games and is a streaky hitter so I can’t fault anyone for chasing his upside at his current cheap price.
I mentioned it earlier but Wander Franco is just $300 today and it’s going to be hard to not use him at that price but if we expect everyone to just use him because of his pricing error I really don’t mind fading him as there are plenty of other great SS options who we can get at crazy lower ownership than usual because of this error but I can’t blame anyone for taking advantage of this pricing mistake and stacking pretty much any other bats you want.
Some other value options I like today include Cedric Mullins ($3,000), Anthony Santander ($2,900), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700), Jean Segura ($3,000), Jeremy Pena ($2,600), Hunter Dozier ($2,300), Javier Baez ($2,500), and Gavin Sheets ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings for the price I think Michael Toglia ($3,100) is the first bat I’m locking in especially since you can play him at 1B or OF and his cheap salary should allow you to fit in Ryan McMahon ($4,800) and a couple other COL bats. Yonathan Daza is another great way to get cheap exposure to the Rockies as he’s $2,700 and hitting 2nd today. Arizona has a couple great value options in Jake McCarthy ($3,700) and Corbin Carroll ($2,900) and I’d still try to get in a couple of bats between Varsho, Rojas, Marte, and Walker who are all $4.5k-$4.8k.
The White Sox are where I’m going next for value as Yoan Moncada ($3,300) and Elvis Andrus ($2,800) are one of my favorite combos likely hitting 1-2 in the order while Jose Abreu ($4,000) and Eloy Jimenez ($4,300) are very affordable too to add on to the stack.
DET/KC is another game with a few solid value bats to target in Eric Haase ($3,200), Spencer Torkelson ($2,000), Hunter Dozier ($2,700), and Michael Taylor ($2,600) and if you need some more cheap options to consider in other games I like Terry Friedl ($2,900), Jake Fraley ($3,100), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,600), Gunnar Henderson ($3,300), Gavin Sheets ($2,600), and Triston Casas ($2,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn