MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/12/22
We’re starting the week with a 6-game main slate on FanDuel and a 7-game main slate on DraftKings as they are including game 2 of the TEX/MIA doubleheader with both slates starting a little earlier than usual at 6:40pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat. We are always looking to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHC/NYM is our main concern for rain today as it could go a few different ways. The most likely outcome is they play through some light showers with the chance of a delay at some point but the length of the delay could be long if it’s a lengthy heavy downpour and they may have to call the game early. In general it’s a game we have to monitor up until lock but it’s by far the riskiest of the slate for pitchers.
PIT/CIN, HOU/DET, and ATL/SF will see temps in the 60s with ATL/SF seeing 15-20 mph winds out to center and today’s dome games are TB/TOR, TEX/MIA, and LAD/ARI.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ATL/SF are +14.5% while total runs for PIT/CIN are +2.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nick Madrigal landed on the IL with a groin strain so Zach McKinstry is the likely leadoff hitter against righties for now while Naquin and Canha should continue to cover the RF spot for the Mets with Marte on the IL with his broken finger. Teoscar Hernandez returned from the paternity list yesterday and Jonathan India, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Nico Hoerner, and Oneil Cruz are getting days off and that’s about it for lineup news besides seeing who TEX and MIA go with for the game 2 lineups on DK.
If the rain starts clearing up closer to lock the Mets would be my top stack, otherwise it’s the Dodgers sitting on a team total of around 5.4 runs. The Blue Jays, Astros, Braves and Reds are also stacks to consider today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I like starting with Will Smith ($3,000), Max Muncy ($3,300), and/or Justin Turner ($3,400) for cheap exposure to my favorite stack hitting in the heart of the order. With the way the weather is looking for the Mets, I’m not considering any bats but if it somehow clears up closer to lock I like the value of Jeff McNeil ($2,600) and Daniel Vogelbach ($2,200).
Next the Astros and Jays have some solid value options in Jeremy Pena ($2,500), Alex Bregman ($3,300), Alejandro Kirk ($3,200), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,400) and with strong winds blowing out in SF I like Matt Olson ($3,200) and Travis d’Arnaud ($2,800) for Braves value.
The Reds should put up some runs against Wilson today and if you need some extreme salary savers I don’t mind Aristides Aquino ($2,200) or Spencer Steer ($2,100) while Friedl, Farmer, and Fraley are all solid plays between $2.7k-$3.3k if you need to fill another position or two.
Looking at DraftKings, the Dodgers are priced up compared to FD with Justin Turner ($4,700) and Joey Gallo ($3,400) being the best cheaper options. The same is true for HOU and TOR but Jeremy Pena ($4,100) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3,300) are still pretty cheap and for ATL Vaughn Grissom ($3,100) is my favorite value bat.
CIN is where I’ll be going for most of the value on DK starting with Terry Friedl ($2,800) and Jake Fraley ($3,000) both with the platoon advantage hitting leadoff and cleanup. Kyle Farmer ($4,000), Spencer Steer ($2,600), and Aristides Aquino ($2,000) are my next favorite CIN bats for the price.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn