MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/19/22
Seven games on today’s main slate to kick off the week and the weather is looking good for all the outdoor games. It’s also worth noting that both sites’ main slates will start a bit earlier than usual at 6:40pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on Twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The only game with even a slight chance of light rain is DET/BAL but the game should play fine with temps in the high 70s and a slight breeze out to center. WSH/ATL and SFG/COL are looking at similar temps in the high 70s and also slight breezes out to center. ARI/LAD will be in the 60s with 8-11 mph wind blowing out and the dome games are NYM/MIL, HOU/TBR, and CHC/MIA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on today’s weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for DET/BAL are +18.3% while total runs for ARI/LAD are +5.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Seiya Suzuki went on the paternity list over the weekend and is likely still out today while Nico Hoerner, Nick Madrigal, Rafael Ortega, and Willson Contreras remain out with injuries for the Cubs. Miguel Cabrera is set to return from the IL today while Nelson Cruz remains out with eye issues and we won’t be seeing Ozzie Albies who went back on the IL with a broken finger just a little over 24 hours after coming off of it and he’ll miss the rest of the regular season. Ryan Mountcastle missed yesterday’s game with a sore elbow after being hit by a pitch but will return to the lineup today and Brendan Rodgers had a minor hamstring tweak over the weekend and will need a day or two off at the minimum.
Coors Field is back in play today so the Giants and Rockies will be extremely popular stacks and for good reason, as we have great hitting weather and two starting pitchers in Junis and Kuhl that give up plenty of hits, walks, HR’s and ERs. Outside of Coors, the Braves are my favorite stack at home in solid hitting weather against the righty Abbott and they are right there with the Giants for the highest projected team total of the slate. The Orioles, Dodgers, and Astros are other stacks I like taking shots on in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’d expect most cash game and single entry lineups to have full SFG/COL game stacks as pretty much every projected bat in this game is under $3.3k outside of CJ Cron ($4,000). For the Giants Joc Pederson ($2,800) is my first priority with my next three favorite bats being Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100), LaMonte Wade ($3,000), and Brandon Crawford ($2,700) all with the platoon advantage. For the Rockies Cron has the biggest upside and will cost you in salary but after him I’d lock in Ryan McMahon ($3,100) and Charlie Blackmon ($3,000) at excellent prices while Daza, Joe, Toglia, and Montero would be my next targets.
My favorite play outside of Coors is Matt Olson ($2,900) hitting cleanup on my 3rd favorite stack of the slate. His recent slump has seen his salary drop under $3k over the last few games but this is a matchup I’d expect him to put a couple of balls in play and hopefully run into a big fly. Travis d’Arnaud ($2,800) is also a decent value play for ATL while Acuna, Swanson, and Riley make for an excellent GPP stack with Olson.
The Orioles are loaded with value against the low strikeout lefty Alexander so if you need a cheap bat to fill a position or a full stack to fit in a top SP you have plenty of choices with Ryan Mountcastle ($2,500) being my favorite option and Austin Hays ($2,500) for the same cheap price would be my next top target hitting leadoff. Rutschman, Santander, Urias, and Aguilar are all cheap and fine options with the platoon advantage.
Looking at DraftKings some Giants and Rockies are priced correctly for Coors field with Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, and Charlie Blackmon all $4.8k or higher but we still have plenty of value bats to stack here. Mike Yastrzemski ($4,000), LaMonte Wade ($3,200), and Brandon Crawford ($3,400) are excellent plays for the price for SF and for COL we have Yonathan Daza ($2,900), Michael Toglia ($3,300) at really nice prices, and Elehuris Montero ($3,200).
Matt Olson ($4,700) and Travis d’Arnaud ($4,000) are still my favorite ATL bats for the price and the Orioles still have some great value options in Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900), Austin Hays ($3,100), Ramon Urias ($3,000), and Jesus Aguilar ($2,400).
Other bats that are in play for me just for the cheap price include Garrett Cooper ($2,600), Charles LeBlanc ($2,300), Zach McKinstry ($2,500), Franmil Reyes ($2,500), Victor Reyes ($2,500), Spencer Torkelson ($2,300), CJ Abrams ($2,000), and Stone Garrett ($2,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based on the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn