MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/22/22
Today’s main slate starts at a unique time of 6:35pm EST with eight games on both sites and no rain concerns anywhere.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Every game will be in the mid 60s or colder besides ARI/LAD which will be in the low 70s. We have some strong winds today with CHC/PIT looking at 10-15mph out to left, MIL/CIN seeing 10-12mph out to right center, HOU/BAL seeing 20mph from left to right, BOS/NYY seeing 12mph out to right center, ATL/PHI seeing 11mph in from left, and CLE/CWS wish 10-15mph out to right. TOR/TB is the lone dome game.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ATL/PHI are +7.4% while total runs for BOS/NYY are +15.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jose Altuve left yesterday’s game early after a HBP on the elbow and will be out today so Jeremy Pena will hit leadoff for HOU and Aledmys Diaz will hit second. Santiago Espinal had to leave early too yesterday with “left side discomfort” which sounds like an oblique issue which means he’ll likely be out awhile so Merrifield and Biggio will cover the 2B position for TOR. Nick Senzel is out for the year with a broken toe and Spencer Steer was a late scratch with an eye infection yesterday so it seems pretty likely newly promoted Mike Siani will crack the lineup for CIN today. Will Brennan was also promoted yesterday for CLE so we’ll see if he gets another start while Yandy Diaz, Trevor Story, and Brandon Marsh are dealing with injuries and remain out today.
The Yankees and Astros are my top stacks of the day while the Red Sox, Braves, and Guardians round out my top five stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I will likely have 3-4 Yankees in my cash game lineup as most are very affordable with the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium. The main four I’m considering (after Judge of course) are Gleyber Torres ($3,300), Josh Donaldson ($2,800), Giancarlo Stanton (3,100), and Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,500). Choosing from this group will come down to salary available and positional depth but the value from this group makes them my favorite starting point today.
Yordan Alvarez ($4,700) and Kyle Tucker ($4,000) are expensive but are two of my favorite plays of the day while Jeremy Pena ($2,700) is one of my favorite value plays (and it’s his birthday today!) along with Aledmys Diaz ($2,200). The Guardians also have a couple of my favorite value plays in Josh Naylor ($2,800) and Steven Kwan ($2,900) who are a combined 14 for 26 over their last three games include three HRs and just 1 strikeout between them.
Some other value bats in consideration today include Rowdy Tellez ($2,700), Zach McKinstry ($2,200), Ian Happ ($2,800), Bryan Reynolds ($2,700), Jonathan Aranda ($2,100), Alex Verdugo ($2,800), and JD Martinez ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings I have to keep mentioning Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800) who should be at least $3,500+ by now but remains under $3k even after hitting a grand slam yesterday. Gleyber Torres ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($4,100) remain solid plays for the price as well.
Jeremy Pena ($4,200), Aledmys Diaz ($3,500) and Kyle Tucker ($5,000) are my favorite bats to get exposure to HOU while Josh Naylor ($3,900), Steven Kwan ($4,400), and Amed Rosario ($4,100) are affordable options with big upside for CLE.
If you need some extreme salary savings I’d look at Jonathan Aranda ($2,400), Zach McKinstry ($2,800), Franmil Reyes ($2,500), and Harrison Bader ($2,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn