MLB First Look: Friday, August 8th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
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Friday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Chi. Cubs | Archer (7-6) – 3.42 ERA | Wada (1-1) – 3.32 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | St. Louis | Baltimore | Masterson (5-6) – 5.63 ERA | Tillman (8-5) – 3.78 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | San Diego | Pittsburgh | Kennedy (8-9) – 3.59 ERA | Worley (4-1) – 2.43 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Mets | Philadelphia | Colon (10-9) – 4.12 ERA | Burnett (6-11) – 4.16 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Cleveland | N.Y. Yankees | Bauer (4-6) – 4.20 ERA | Rogers (1-0) – 5.84 ERA |
| 7:07 PM | Detroit | Toronto | Sanchez (8-5) – 3.37 ERA | Dickey (9-11) – 4.03 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Miami | Cincinnati | Eovaldi (5-6) – 4.22 ERA | Leake (9-9) – 3.46 ERA |
| 7:35 PM | Washington | Atlanta | Strasburg (8-9) – 3.39 ERA | Santana (10-6) – 3.59 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | San Francisco | Kansas City | Bumgarner (13-8) – 3.21 ERA | Vargas (8-5) – 3.69 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Milwaukee | Beckett (6-6) – 2.88 ERA | Lohse (11-6) – 3.40 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Texas | Houston | Mikolas (1-4) – 7.29 ERA | Oberholtzer (4-7) – 4.17 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | Colorado | Arizona | Matzek (2-6) – 5.31 ERA | Anderson (6-4) – 3.19 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Minnesota | Oakland | Gibson (10-8) – 3.93 ERA | Kazmir (12-4) – 2.53 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Boston | L.A. Angels | Webster (1-1) – 6.75 ERA | Weaver (12-6) – 3.59 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Seattle | Quintana (6-7) – 3.04 ERA | Iwakuma (9-6) – 2.94 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Friday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Scott Kazmir (vs. Minnesota Twins) – While I’m not sure we can expect a complete game like the one Lester put up against the Twins last night, I do think Kazmir is the premier play on Friday night. The Twins strike out at a high rate against LH pitching and he’s a huge favorite (-230).
Hisashi Iwakuma (vs. Chicago White Sox) – The White Sox are a very capable offense, but they are also one that strikes out often. They have a 22% K-rate against RH pitching and Iwakuma has posted at least 6 K’s in 5 of his last 7 starts. He’s always pitched well at Safeco and I expect nothing different tonight.
Madison Bumgarner (vs. Kansas City Royals) – If you are looking for an ace that will likely go under-owned on Friday, you may want to take a look at Bumgarner. He’s facing a Royals offense that is ranked 24th in wOBA against LH pitching and he’s facing them at Kauffman Stadium which is a tough park to hit HR’s in.
2) Two Offenses to Target
L.A. Angels (vs. Allen Webster) – The Angels offense hasn’t scored a single run in either of their last two games (unless they score in the bottom of the 9th Thursday night). That’s very uncharacteristic of them and I’m expecting a big outing from them on Friday against Webster who has a career ERA north of 7.00.
Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Tyler Matzek) – Even though the D-Backs have a depleted lineup, I really like their matchup against Matzek at home. The D-Backs bats will come very cheap so target the RH hitters in this lineup if you are looking for great value.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Round 9 (Thursday, August 7th): Neither side wanted Round 9 all that bad. Jacoby Ellsbury (BvP) edged out Adam Jones (wOBA) with a single. Jones went 0/4 in a great matchup. Once again, BvP pulls ahead by one as we head to Round 10.
Scoreboard: BvP 5 – wOBA 4
Freddie Freeman (BvP Play of the Day) – I was tempted to put Ike Davis and his 4 HR’s off of Ian Kennedy here, but Freeman had a much bigger sample size. Freeman is 9/20 with 3 XBH’s off of Stephen Strasburg in his career while also drawing 5 walks. That’s good enough for a .519 OBP and a 1.32 OPS.
Michael Brantley (wOBA Play of the Day) – The Yankees will start Esmil Rogers on Friday which is great news for the LH hitters in the Indians lineup. Rogers gave up a .371 wOBA to LH hitters last season and is giving up a .471 wOBA to lefties this season. Meanwhile, Brantley is sporting a .416 wOBA against RH pitching this season.
4) He’s on Fire!
Caleb Joseph (vs. Justin Masterson) – Don’t look now, but Joseph has now homered in 4 straight games. Sure he’s batting very low in the order, but he’s swinging a hot bat with 12 hits over his last 10 games, 10 of which went for extra bases. He’s still extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and offers a terrific value play at Catcher.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Lucas Duda (vs. A.J. Burnett) – It’s been a while since the HR prediction has gone deep, but hopefully that will change tonight. Duda is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and gets to face Burnett who has really struggled vs. LH hitters this season. Duda has already hit 19 HR’s off of LH pitching this season and the game will be played in the HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park.