MLB First Look: Tuesday, July 8th
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
Tonight I learned that anything can happen in baseball. I learned the hard way too. Before leagues started, the general consensus was that the Red Sox and the Rockies were the two top teams to target offensively. I had mini-stacks of both teams all over the industry and was gearing up for a solid night of DFS. Then baseball happened. Scott Carroll and the White Sox bullpen threw a shutout against the Red Sox and then Ian Kennedy held the Rockies to a single run. If that wasn’t bad enough, I had Jered Weaver on DK. He got off to a nice start and then got injured warming up as he was heading out for the 3rd inning. That’s just the nature of the game though and I’ll get back on the horse tonight.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Wood (7-6) – 4.62 ERA | Cueto (8-6) – 1.99 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Cleveland | Tanaka (12-3) – 2.27 ERA | Bauer (2-4) – 4.42 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Baltimore | Washington | Norris (7-5) – 3.62 ERA | Fister (7-2) – 2.93 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Detroit | Ryu (9-4) – 3.08 ERA | Verlander (7-7) – 4.71 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Kansas City | Tampa Bay | Vargas (8-3) – 3.32 ERA | Hellickson (0-0) – 0.00 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Boston | Danks (7-6) – 4.12 ERA | Workman (1-2) – 4.17 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | N.Y. Mets | Teheran (8-5) – 2.29 ERA | deGrom (1-5) – 3.77 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Wada (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Holmberg (0-0) – 0.00 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Houston | Texas | Peacock (2-5) – 4.38 ERA | Irwin (0-0) – 0.00 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Philadelphia | Milwaukee | Kendrick (3-8) – 4.12 ERA | Peralta (9-5) – 3.35 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Pittsburgh | St. Louis | Worley (2-1) – 2.28 ERA | Martinez (2-3) – 3.91 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | San Diego | Colorado | Ross (7-8) – 2.93 ERA | Morales (4-4) – 5.51 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | Miami | Arizona | Hand (0-1) – 6.21 ERA | Nuno (2-5) – 5.42 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | San Francisco | Oakland | Bumgarner (9-6) – 3.09 ERA | Gray (8-3) – 3.08 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Toronto | L.A. Angels | Dickey (6-8) – 4.10 ERA | Skaggs (4-4) – 4.16 ERA |
Today’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
At first glance, here are the pitchers that you should target in tomorrow night’s games:
- Masahiro Tanaka – With Johnny Cueto scheduled to pitch in the day game, Tanaka is the clear #1 option in the evening slate of games. While the matchup is tough on paper (Indians are ranked 6th in wOBA against RH pitching this season), I think Tanaka should mow through this lineup. He has one of the best K-rates in baseball and has been very efficient against LH hitters (.219 bating average) which bodes well for his matchup against the Indians.
- Julio Teheran – Teheran is a little cheaper than Tanaka, but provides similar upside. The Mets are one of the worst offenses in baseball, especially against RH pitching. They are ranked 27th against RH pitching with a team .295 wOBA. Teheran has posted quality fantasy outings in 8 of his last 9 starts. You aren’t going to find that consistency with many starting pitchers.
- Sonny Gray – Gray is another solid pitching option tonight. While he will have Madison Bumgarner pitching opposite him, the A’s are a terrific team against LH pitching and I expect them to score at least a couple of runs. That may be enough for Gray to pick up the victory. The Giants’ bats have gone cold and Gray has always pitched well at home.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Arizona Diamondbacks – I was tempted to put the Rockies here again, but they are an obvious choice and they actually have a fairly tough matchup against Tyson Ross. The D-Backs have a much better matchup as they are facing the LHP Brad Hand in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Hand is a pretty average lefty and the Diamondbacks have quite a few bats in their lineup that hit LH pitching well. Paul Goldschmidt, Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, and even Cody Ross are suggested plays here.
- Houston Astros – There aren’t many times where the Astros are going to make the list of top offenses to target, but I love their matchup tonight against Phil Irwin who will be making a spot start for the injured Nick Martinez. Irwin is not a big league prospect and should have his hands full with an Astros’ lineup that went OFF last night. This game will be played in the hitter’s park that is Globe Life Park and I think the Astros could be in for another big outing.
3) The Battle of Inexperienced Southpaws
Looking at the Vegas lines, I saw that Tsuyoshi Wada (CHC) and David Holmberg (CIN) were both taking the mound Tuesday night. Obviously, these are not household names. These two lefties have combined for a total of 1 major league start so this one should be an interesting one to watch. Wada has the better upside of the two as he has posted a 2.66 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 105/26 K/BB ratio at the Triple-A level this season. Holmberg on the other hand has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.85 WHIP at the Triple-A level. I won’t be targeting either pitcher tonight, but both offenses could make interesting stack options.
4) BvP Play of the Day: Ryan Braun
There are a lot of reasons to target Ryan Braun tonight, one of them being his BvP against Kyle Kendrick. Braun has faced Kendrick 19 times in his career and has 9 hits off of him with 2 HR’s and a double. That equates to an career OPS of 1.32 against Kendrick. Furthermore, this game will be played in the HR friendly Miller Park and Braun has hit RH pitching well this season (.370 wOBA).
5) Daily SB Predictor: Texas Rangers
If you’ve never checked out the Batter Hub here on RotoGrinders, I highly recommend it. Plus, it’s available to all members of RG, not just the incentives members. For Tuesday, the stolen base predictor loves the Rangers. Brad Peacock has given up 6 SB’s in 12 starts this season and neither of the Astros’ catchers have been great at throwing runners out this season. While the Rangers aren’t necessarily thought of as a speedy lineup, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios, and Leonys Martin have all stolen at least 14 bases this season. Give these three a small fantasy boost tonight.
As always, thanks for reading and make sure to check out the MLB Grind Down tomorrow morning for a more in-depth analysis of each game.