MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-25 19:27:02

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Toronto at NY Yankees

Toronto					NY Yankees
Mark Buehrle		Vegas Moneyline			Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		NYY (-135)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.709	0.324	13.6%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.722	0.318	16.3%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.735	0.325	15.7%	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.626	0.281	19.4%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mark Buehrle – What’s up Grinders, we have a big night in the industry as well as a full slate of games, so let’s hop right into it. The first game of the night is between the Blue Jays and Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Buehrle will be on the mound tonight as he looks to continue his impressive 2014 campaign. While his 2.86 ERA looks pretty, his xFIP of 4.29 tells a different story. Buehrle has a low K/9 of 5.3 and faces a Yankees’ offense that is finally starting to score some runs. He’s a pretty average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $13500 DD, $6000 DK, $81600 FF, $16900 SS, $13500 FTD

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is having his best month of the season. In 4 starts in July, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA while holding opponents to a .217 batting average. Kuroda is an extremely good pitcher when he is hitting his spots and he has been this month. Typically a matchup against the Blue Jays is one that you want to avoid, but the Blue Jays are nursing some injuries and this game will be played away from the Rogers Centre. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7200 FD, $13200 DD, $7700 DK, $83400 FF, $22100 SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Reyes is swinging a hot bat and has history on his side as well. Reyes has 15 hits over his last 10 games and has had Kuroda’s number in the past going 11/23 with 6 XBH’s. Additionally, his SB potential goes up when he faces a RH pitcher.

Additional Plays: Dioner Navarro

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Even though this is a lefty/lefty matchup, Ellsbury has actually hit LH pitching better than RH pitching this season. He has a .317 batting average and a .375 wOBA against southpaws and as mentioned above, Buerhle is likely to regress in the second half of the season.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran

Arizona at Philadelphia

Arizona					Philadelphia
Wade Miley		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		ARI (-119)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.699	0.318	16.2%	SP vs. Left	0.272	0.751	0.334	14.7%
SP vs. Right	0.255	0.721	0.320	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.287	0.727	0.332	13.1%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wade Miley – I’d like to say that now is the time to buy low on Miley, but his price is way up across the industry. Miley is having a terrific month of July with a 1.88 ERA and 29 K’s over 28 innings of work. Miley is averaging 8.4 K’s per 9 innings this season and his xFIP of 3.29 is solid. He should pitch well tonight against the Phillies who have dropped in the rankings vs. LH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $15200 DD, $8600 DK, $114200 FF, $25500 SS, $15200 FTD

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is basically your average, run of the mill major league starter. He has an ERA of 4.87, a K/9 of 5.5, and has a BABIP of .286. While the Diamondbacks haven’t been the most potent offensive team this season, there is more risk than upside with Kendrick tonight. You can safely avoid him in all fantasy formats. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $10300 DD, $5900 DK, $48200 FF, $14200 SS, $10300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is my Dong of the Day in the MLB First Look column. He draws a great matchup against Kendrick in a very HR-friendly ballpark. Kendrick has already given up 16 HR’s on the season and Goldy has really hit RH pitching well with a .396 wOBA this season.

Additional Plays: Miguel Montero

Philadelphia

Marlon Byrd – It’s pretty crazy that Byrd was fighting for a roster spot in Spring Training and has arguably been the Phillies’ best hitter this season next to Chase Utley. He has a .378 wOBA against LH pitching this season and should be batting clean-up again tonight.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins

Washington at Cincinnati

Washington					Cincinnati
Tanner Roark		Vegas Moneyline			Alfredo Simon		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-111)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.622	0.282	14.9%	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.679	0.306	15.6%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.539	0.246	22.3%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.547	0.264	17.7%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tanner Roark – Roark has been a nice surprise for the Nationals this season. He owns a 2.91 ERA and has eerily similar stats to last season. While I do like the matchup against a depleted Reds’ offense, Roark has struggled away from home this season. His ERA on the road doubles that of his ERA at home. He is still in play thanks to his moderately priced salary, but temper your expectations a bit. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $15700 DD, $7700 DK, $90600 FF, $22800 SS, $15700 FTD

• Alfredo Simon – I wonder what the odds were at the beginning of the season that Simon would be an All-Star. I certainly didn’t see this type of season coming from him. Through 19 starts, Simon has posted a 2.74 ERA with a K/9 of 5.8. He’s had some good fortune though as his BABIP of .233 is incredibly low. I expect him to regress a bit down the stretch and it may start tonight against a stacked Nationals’ offense. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $15650 DD, $8000 DK, $101800 FF, $23700 SS, $15650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has a decent matchup against Simon and gets to face him in Great American Ballpark which really benefits LH hitters. LaRoche has a .386 wOBA vs. RH pitching and is batting in the heart of this talented offense.

Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton – Hamilton has evolved into a much more complete player this season. His fantasy production is still highly correlated with his ability to steal bases, but he’s been able to show more power this season with 32 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Jay Bruce

Boston at Tampa Bay

Boston					Tampa Bay
Jon Lester		Vegas Moneyline			David Price		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TBR (-140)			LEFT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.662	0.294	26.8%	SP vs. Left	0.219	0.569	0.260	23.7%
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.670	0.302	20.4%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.673	0.296	23.7%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jon Lester – If you love baseball, this should be a terrific game to watch, fantasy interests aside. We have two of the best lefties in baseball facing off tonight in a classic AL East battle. Lester is having his best season in arguably 5 years. He is sporting a 2.50 ERA, K/9 of 9.3, and he’s given up a career low 0.53 HR’s per 9 innings. He makes a terrific contrarian play tonight as the masses will likely be taking Price instead. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10000 FD, $20950 DD, $10700 DK, $131800 FF, $30400 SS, $20950 FTD

• David Price – Price is a master of the strikeout. He has produced a career high 27% strikeout rate this season and he’s doing it by making batters swing at pitches outside of the zone. Batters are swinging at 28% of Prices pitches off of the plate and he’s generated a 20% swinging miss rate. Price has always pitched well at home and I see another double-digit strikeout effort in store for him tonight. Rating = 9.5

Salaries: $11100 FD, $22400 DD, $12000 DK, $139700 FF, $32500 SS, $22400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston / Tampa Bay

The total on this game is set at 6.5 runs which seems a bit high to me. I think both pitchers are in play, but I’ll be avoiding both offenses in this one.

San Diego at Atlanta

San Diego					Atlanta
Jesse Hahn		Vegas Moneyline			Alex Wood		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-160)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.163	0.471	0.215	29.1%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.667	0.301	27.1%
SP vs. Right	0.212	0.550	0.276	28.2%	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.656	0.297	22.5%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs L		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jesse Hahn – You can never really tell how good a pitcher is going to be until he reaches the majors. Some pitchers are great in the minors, but can’t seem to put it together in the majors. Vice-versa is true as well. It’s safe to say that Hahn’s call-up has worked out well for the Padres. Through 7 starts, Hahn has a 2.21 ERA while averaging over 10 K’s per 9 innings of work. Tonight he faces the Braves who strike out at a 21.8% clip against RH pitching. He makes a great tournament play tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $16150 DD, $9100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Alex Wood – Wood is going to be a popular play in both cash games and GPP’s. His price is affordable and he’s facing the worst offense in all of baseball. Wood loves to challenge hitters which is a big reason why he is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. I don’t see the Padres putting up much of a fight tonight which is why Wood may be the best dollar for dollar pitcher on the board. Rating = 8

Salaries: $7700 FD, $14650 DD, $7700 DK, $104500 FF, $23000 SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

There aren’t any hitters that stand out here. The Padres are facing a quality lefty in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – This is another game that features a very low run total. You can easily avoid both offenses here in favor of some of the games with higher totals. That said, Freeman seems to be coming out of his funk and is always in play against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: None

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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