MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 14th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-14 15:28:13

St. Louis at Milwaukee

St. Louis					Milwaukee
Lance Lynn		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Garza		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-118)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.272	0.779	0.352	18.3%	SP vs. Left	0.266	0.712	0.319	21.7%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.635	0.289	26.8%	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.663	0.300	19.8%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Lance Lynn – Lynn has struggled in his first two starts of the season and was not the same pitcher on the road as he was at home last year. In 17 road starts, Lynn posted a 5.15 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He is facing a red hot Brewers lineup in the hitter friendly Miller Park. He is only a slight underdog here, but I have Garza ranked much higher than Lynn tonight. Rating = 5

• Matt Garza – Garza has looked good as a member of the Brewers thus far. In two starts, he has a 2.70 ERA with 11 K’s over 14 innings pitched. Even though both of these pitchers are very talented, the total of 7.5 runs seems a bit low to me. This is a tough matchup for Garza as the Cardinals have a very tough lineup 1-8. His high K-rate puts him in play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

• Matt Carpenter – On base machine himself makes a nice play against the RH pitcher Garza. Garza gave up a .319 wOBA to LH batters last season and Carpenter hit for a .329 average against RH pitching last season. Garza has 5 hits in his last 3 and typically takes as many walks as strikeouts against RH pitching.

• Additional Plays: Matt Holliday

Milwuakee

• Carlos Gomez – Even though it’s better to target LH batters against Lynn, Gomez has been on fire lately. He has at least 1 hit and 1 RBI in each of his last 5 games. Last season he hit 24 HR’s and stole 40 bases.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Braun

NY Mets at Arizona

NY Mets					Arizona
Zack Wheeler		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Collmenter		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ARI (-123)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.786	0.353	19.5%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.620	0.298	20.6%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.637	0.291	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.664	0.303	22.3%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Wheeler – Wheeler has not been sharp in his first two starts. He has given up 15 hits and 7 earned runs in only 11 innings of work. Wheeler, like many RH pitchers, really struggles against LH batters. Wheeler gave up a .353 wOBA to LH batters last season. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and he’s a very risky play tonight. Rating = 4

• Josh Collmenter – Collmenter will make his first start since 2012. He has pitched out of the bullpen over the last year or so and has pitched pretty well. Last season he posted a 3.13 ERA with a K/9 just over 8.0. Obviously, being a starter is a more difficult task though and the Mets have hit RH pitching well this season. The best play here is to target the bats from both teams. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

New York

• David Wright – Wright may be a little fired up for tonight’s game after getting throw out against the Angels late in their game yesterday. Wright hit for a .296 average against RH pitching last season and should be in line for some RBI opportunities tonight.

• Additional Plays: Eric Young, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson

Arizona

• Gerardo Parra – Parra is a player that typically flies under the fantasy radar. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he is a nice LH bat that should be batting lead-off tonight against Wheeler who gave up a .353 wOBA to LH batters last season. Parra had 52 XBH’s against RH pitching last season including 38 doubles.

• Additional Plays: Eric Chavez, Mark Trumbo, Paul Goldschmidt

Oakland at LA Angels

Oakland					LA Angels
Jesse Chavez		Vegas Moneyline			Hector Santiago		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-111)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.617	0.294	22.8%	SP vs. Left	0.245	0.666	0.323	21.2%
SP vs. Right	0.207	0.562	0.258	22.7%	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.751	0.342	20.9%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jesse Chavez – Chavez has looked good in his first two starts of the season, but gets a very tough test against the Angels tonight whose offense is firing on all cylinders. Chavez is a high strikeout pitcher as he has averaged close to 9 per 9 innings over the last two seasons, but I do not want to target any pitcher against the buzz saw that is the Angels offense right now. Rating = 4

• Hector Santiago – The good news for Santiago is that the A’s have a lot of LH batters in their lineup. The bad news is that Santiago still gave up a .323 wOBA to LH batters last season. Santiago has really struggled in his first two starts of the season posting a 7.70 ERA while only lasting a combined 9 innings. He should be avoided tonight. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

• Josh Donaldson – Donaldson is riding a 7 game hitting streak and has a terrific matchup against Santiago who gave up a .342 wOBA to RH batters last season. Donaldson was one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties last season with a .335 average and 30 XBH’s.

• Additional Plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Alberto Callaspo

Los Angeles

• Mike Trout – As long as he keeps producing, I will keep targeting him. Trout has 7 hits in his last 3 games including 2 HR’s. He crushes both LH and RH pitching and steals bases as often as he hits HR’s. He’s the top batter on the board tonight.

• Additional Plays: Raul Ibanez, Kole Calhoun

Colorado at San Diego

Colorado					San Diego
Jordan Lyles		Vegas Moneyline			Eric Stults		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-115)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.735	0.333	11.4%	SP vs. Left	0.191	0.561	0.251	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.295	0.815	0.366	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.301	0.780	0.342	14.1%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Lyles – Who knew that the cure to Lyles’ pitching problems was Coors Field? Lyles had his best start in quite a while against the White Sox in Coors. That said, he has a career ERA well over 5.00. A lot of people will be attracted to him as this game will be played in Petco, but I’m just not seeing it. He could very well prove me wrong again, but he will not be in any of my cash game lineups. Rating = 4

• Eric Stults – Stults pitched well in Petco last season. In 15 starts at home, he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.75. Those are terrific numbers for a pitcher in his price range. This Rockies lineup is littered with big names, but they are a much different team away from Coors. I think Stults makes a very good tournament play. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

• Troy Tulowitzki – Stults gave up a .342 wOBA to RH batters last season and Tulo has always been one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching.

• Additional Plays: Michael Cuddyer

San Diego

• Jedd Gyorko – Venable is off to a slow start this season, but finally hit his first HR of the season last night. He showed last year that he can get hot and string together great games. Lyles gave up a .366 wOBA to RH batters last season.

• Additional Plays: Everth Cabrera, Will Venable