MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 28th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | Alfredo Simon | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-148) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.755 | 0.335 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.201 | 0.648 | 0.301 | 15.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.665 | 0.306 | 22.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.521 | 0.249 | 18.4% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP  | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija is a high strikeout pitcher that has really pitched well this season. In his first 5 starts, he has a 1.57 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.9. Last season his K/9 was right around 9.0. Samardzija is a small underdog here at +138, but he has a high enough K-rate that he deserves roster consideration in GPP’s. Samardzija is a pitcher that could easily pick up a win with only a couple of runs to support him and he always has the potential to strike out 10 batters. Rating = 6
Alfredo Simon – After pitching out of the bullpen for the last two seasons, Simon has looked very comfortable as a starter. This season he has a 1.30 ERA with an even more impressive 0.96 WHIP. His K/9 is only 5.9 this season, but he is facing a Cubs offense that has been in a major slump. Not only have the Cubs not been hitting, but they have struck out the 6th most times of any team in baseball this season. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Even though the Cubbies haven’t been able to string together hits lately, Rizzo is having himself a terrific season. Imagine what he could do with a couple of batters in this lineup to protect him. Rizzo is batting .284 on the season and has nice power against RH pitching (.796 OPS last season).
Additional Plays: Starlin Castro
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – Votto is batting .359 against RH pitching this season and has been on fire at home. In 31 at bats in Great American this season, Votto is batting .452 with 7 XBH’s. Samardzija also struggles against LH batters as he gave up a .335 wOBA to lefties last season.
Additional Plays: Jay Bruce
Oakland at Texas
| Oakland | Texas | ||||||||
| Sonny Gray | Vegas Moneyline | Yu Darvish | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TEX (-140) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.618 | 0.281 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.633 | 0.288 | 29.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.556 | 0.247 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.172 | 0.540 | 0.249 | 36.9% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Sonny Gray – You don’t see many run totals at Globe Life Park that are only set at 7 runs. That just speaks to the talent of these two starting pitchers. In 5 starts this season, Gray has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.8. He has already faced this Rangers offense once this season and allowed 3 runs over 7 innings of work while striking out 8 batters. Gray has had his struggles on the road though and I will be avoiding him in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Rating = 5
Yu Darvish – Darvish is the king of strikeouts which basically means he is the king of DFS because strikeouts are critical when it comes to selecting starting pitchers. Darvish boasted a K/9 of 11.8 last season and is averaging just over 9.0 per 9 innings this season. Darvish has posted pedestrian numbers against the A’s over the past two seasons, but should his K-rate more than makes up for it. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Brandon Moss – Moss is more of a GPP play than a cash game play, but he has enjoyed some nice success against Darvish. In 18 at bats against him, Moss has 6 hits including 4 HR’s. Moss has always had nice power against RH pitching (.905 OPS last season) and makes a nice tournament play tonight.
Additional Plays: Coco Crisp
Texas
Alex Rios – Rios is riding a 6-game hitting streak and has now accumulated 17 hits over his last 10 games. Rios has always hit RH pitching well and has both HR power and enough speed to steal bases. I think he makes a nice play tonight against Gray who has struggled a bit on the road.
Additional Plays: Prince Fielder, Elvis Andrus
Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
| Tampa Bay | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Andre Rienzo | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-127) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.785 | 0.348 | 17.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.767 | 0.342 | 15.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.717 | 0.318 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.764 | 0.349 | 14.4% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi hasn’t pitched more than 6 innings in any of his previous 10 starts. He is not a pitcher that pitched deep into games. This season he has a 6.52 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP. He is facing a White Sox offense that is rejuvenated this season thanks to the stellar play of rookie Jose Abreu. This may be a bit surprising, but the White Sox have scored more runs than any team in baseball this season. I’ll be avoiding Odorizzi. Rating = 3
Andre Rienzo – Rienzo has only made 1 start this season, so let’s take a look at his starts from 2013 to get a bigger sample size. In 10 starts last season, he posted a 4.82 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. His K/9 was 6.1 last season and that’s just not high enough to make him a viable fantasy option against the Rays. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and I will be avoiding both SP’s in this game. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Joyce has been incredible against RH pitching this season. Just take a quick look at his splits against RH pitching: .395/.521/1.16 (BA/OBP/OPS). Rienzo gave up a .342 wOBA to LH batters last season and Joyce looks like a terrific value play in the OF.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings
Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton – Eaton has a .361 OBP this season which is solid for a lead-off hitter. Last season Odorizzi gave up a .348 wOBA to LH batters and Eaton should be in for a nice game. He should be able to get on base and then let the big bats behind him bring him home. Eaton is a terrific punt play tonight.
Additional Plays: Jose Abreu, Adam Dunn, Dayan Viciedo
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | Michael Wacha | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-164) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.706 | 0.318 | 17.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.533 | 0.242 | 25.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.683 | 0.306 | 19.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.648 | 0.291 | 27.1% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Yovani Gallardo – In 5 starts this season, Gallardo has a 1.42 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.7. He has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any start this season. Something tells me that the streak will end tonight. The Cardinals offense really makes pitchers work for every single out. It also doesn’t help that Wacha is the opposing pitcher here as Gallardo is a +154 underdog. Rating = 4
Michael Wacha – After an incredible rookie season, Wacha is off to an even better start in his sophomore campaign. In his first 5 starts he has a 2.10 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and a very impressive K/9 of 10.5. At this point, there aren’t any lineups that I will be avoiding Wacha against. He has as much upside as Yu Darvish, but is considerably cheaper across the industry. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
- I will not be using any Brewers’ bats tonight against Wacha Wacha Wacha.
St. Louis
Matt Holliday – Holliday has nice splits against RH pitching this season: .299/.375/.791 (BA/OBP/OPS). He also has good career numbers against Gallardo with 3 HR’s in only 30 at-bats. Gallardo has been pitching over his head this season and will come back down to Earth tonight.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Matt Adams
Colorado at Arizona
| Colorado | Arizona | ||||||||
| Franklin Morales | Vegas Moneyline | Wade Miley | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | ARI (-130) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.179 | 0.401 | 0.219 | 27.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.705 | 0.315 | 18.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.291 | 0.882 | 0.396 | 15.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.722 | 0.323 | 18.1% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs L | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Franklin Morales – While Chase Field doesn’t surrender quite as many runs as Coors Field, it’s still not a ballpark that I like to target pitchers in. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and both starters look like less than appealing fantasy options. Morales has a 3.86 ERA on the season, but this D-Backs’ lineup hits LH pitching well and I don’t see any value for Morales outside of a deep GPP play. Rating = 4
Wade Miley – Miley really struggled in his home starts last season and that has been the case so far this season as well. In his 3 starts at Chase Field this season, Miley has a 6.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. This Rockies team hits LH pitching well and knocked around a better LH pitcher in Ryu yesterday. Miley is averaging close to 1 K per inning this season, but should not be used in cash games. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Troy Tulowitzki – This matchup really sets up well for Tulo. Over the last 3 seasons, Tulo has hit LH pitching for a .318 batting average and a .906 OPS. He has also had success in Chase Field over that span with a .417 batting average and a .981 OPS.
Additional Plays: Wilin Rosario, Nolan Arenado
Arizona
Paul Goldschidt – I will let you guys in on a little secret as long as you promise not to tell anyone. Goldschmidt is pretty good against LH pitching. Last season Goldy hit LH pitching of for a .309 batting average and a .986 OPS. It also doesn’t hurt that Morales gave up a .396 wOBA to RH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Martin Prado, Cody Ross, A.J. Pollock