MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-28 21:30:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Toronto at Boston

Toronto					Boston
R.A. Dickey		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-134)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.740	0.330	17.7%	SP vs. Left	0.240	0.656	0.298	19.6%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.692	0.311	20.4%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.675	0.301	20.9%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey has pitched pretty well this season, but he doesn’t find himself on top of any daily plays list. He doesn’t generate as many strikeouts as he used to which doesn’t make up for the 3+ runs that he seems to give up in every start. In two meetings with the Red Sox this season, Dickey has posted a 3.65 ERA with 11 K’s over 12 innings of work. He is worth a look as a tournament play, but there are better options at his price point in cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $13950 DD, $7900 DK, $86400 FF, $18600 SS, $13950 FTD

• Clay Buchholz – Buchholz still doesn’t have the form of his 2013 campaign, but he’s arguably gotten better each month since the start of the season. He owns a 5.50 ERA, but his 4.31 ERA suggests that he’s pitching much better than that. Buchholz strikeouts have also gone up since the beginning of the season and he now averages 6.8 K’s per 9 innings. I think he pitches well here, but his price isn’t cheap enough to take a chance on. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $12400 DD, $7100 DK, $63800 FF, $15800 SS, $12650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Melky Cabrera – Melky tends to get overlooked in the daily fantasy landscape because there are players with more upside than him at his price point. That said, there are few players with the type of consistency that Melky provides. He has 17 hits over his last 10 games and has scored positive FD points in 9 of those 10 outings.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista

Boston

David Ortiz – In my MLB First Look column, I have Ortiz as my odds on favorite to homer tonight. He has a nice matchup against Dickey who has already given up 19 HR’s this season. Not only that, but Ortiz has already taken Dickey deep twice in only 15 career at bats against him.

Additional Plays: Shane Victorino, Brock Holt

Arizona at Cincinnati

Arizona					Cincinnati
Chase Anderson		Vegas Moneyline			Homer Bailey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-132)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.213	0.681	0.306	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.757	0.342	20.2%
SP vs. Right	0.316	0.918	0.401	22.8%	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.601	0.273	24.6%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chase Anderson – Anderson is quietly having a very nice rookie season. In 11 starts, he has posted a 3.58 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.8. There are two red flags that stand out with Anderson though. The first is the fact that he’s giving a up HR in 15.5% of fly balls given up. That doesn’t bode well for his outlook tonight in the HR friendly Great American Ballpark. The second red flag is that he has given up 3.3 walks per 9 innings. Free passes can often come back to haunt pitchers, especially ones that give up a lot of HR’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $13000 DD, $6500 DK, $81900 FF, $18200 SS, $13000 FTD

• Homer Bailey – Bailey has been one of my favorite pitchers to target over the last two months because he has ace-quality type of stuff, yet he was priced in the $7,000-$8,000 range on both FD and DK. Bailey’s ERA continues to go down as it gets closer to his xFIP of 3.57. Tonight he draws a decent matchup against the Diamondbacks. If he can keep it in the ballpark, he should be able to post another quality outing. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8300 FD, $15350 DD, $8700 DK, $86100 FF, $18900 SS, $15350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Miguel Montero – Montero has a nice matchup in terms of handedness and he also has the ballpark factor in his favor. Bailey has given up a .357 wOBA to LH hitters while Montero has a .355 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: David Peralta

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – The sample size is small, but so far this season Anderson has some serious reverse splits. He’s given up a .380 wOBA to RH hitters. Frazier meanwhile, has a .367 wOBA against RH pitching and is a nice source of speed (15 SB’s) and power (20 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Jay Bruce

Philadelphia at NY Mets

Philadelphia					NY Mets
A.J. Burnett		Vegas Moneyline			Bartolo Colon		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYM (-130)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.740	0.345	19.8%	SP vs. Left	0.262	0.687	0.301	15.6%
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.588	0.264	26.3%	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.652	0.289	17.2%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett is enjoying a terrific month of July. He’s posted a 3.74 ERA while averaging more than 1 strikeout per inning pitched. Tonight he travels to Citi Field to take on the Mets in a pitcher-friendly environment. The Mets are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season (.297) while striking out at a 20.4% clip. The downside here is that he is going to have to face quite a few LH hitters tonight, which is not where Burnett excels. He makes a nice GPP play, but so do the LH hitters on the Mets. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $14800 DD, $8100 DK, $86700 FF, $19300 SS, $14200 FTD

• Bartolo Colon – If you take a closer look at Colon’s numbers, he’s basically been the same pitcher that he was in 2013 as a member of the A’s. Similar K and BB rates, similar ground ball rate, and an even better xFIP. Colon has specifically pitched well at home where he is boasting a 2.81 ERA with 52 K’s over 57 innings of work. He’s still an extremely affordable option and he draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season (.291). Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $14750 DD, $7200 DK, $91700 FF, $21100 SS, $14450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies don’t hit RH pitching well and Colon has managed to hold both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season. I’m favoring the Colon side of this matchup and will be avoiding all Phillies’ bats.

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – Duda has been swinging a hot bat this month. He has a .420 wOBA in the month of July and has 10 hits over his last 10 games (4 HR’s). Duda is in a great spot again tonight as Burnett has given up a .352 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson

Milwaukee at Tampa Bay

Milwaukee					Tampa Bay
Kyle Lohse		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-136)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.684	0.304	16.5%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.722	0.320	26.2%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.663	0.295	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.651	0.296	22.6%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse is enjoying another solid season. He’s sporting a 3.04 ERA, but his 3.84 xFIP suggests a little bit of regression. Lohse has a decent K/9 of 6.5 and he rarely walks batters. He will have his hands full tonight though as the Rays have won 9 of their last 10 games as they make a furious push back into playoff contention. Lohse is in play as a contrarian pick. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15050 DD, $8400 DK, $103800 FF, $23000 SS, $15350 FTD

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball that doesn’t have a household name. He’s averaging 10.4 K’s per 9 innings with a 27% strikeout rate. You aren’t going to find any other pitchers at his price point with the strikeout potential that Odorizzi possesses. While the Brewers have hit RH pitching well this season, Odorizzi should be able to rack up the K’s once again. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7700 FD, $15450 DD, $8000 DK, $89000 FF, $21800 SS, $15450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – Gomez has hit RH pitching well this season (.392 wOBA) and is a nice source of speed (19 SB’s) and power (15 HR’s). Odorizzi has been pretty solid against RH hitters this season, but Gomez has nice upside.

Additional Plays: Ryan Braun

Tampa Bay

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist has been seeing the ball well with 6 hits and 3 walks over his last 3 games. It’s not the best matchup, but the Rays have been playing great ball and sometimes you have to target the hot hitters on the teams that are locked in.

Additional Plays: Desmond Jennings

Washington at Miami

Washington					Miami
Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Moneyline			Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-149)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.692	0.305	17.3%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.755	0.341	14.4%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.609	0.277	22.3%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.634	0.284	20.0%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Zimmermann – The Marlins have had Zimmermann’s number this season. In 3 outings against the fish, Zimmermann has posted a 6.59 ERA while giving up a .368 batting average. That said, Zimmermann is still facing a strikeout happy team in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. I think Zimmermann makes a nice tournament play tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8600 FD, $15450 DD, $8800 DK, $79500 FF, $19900 SS, $15450 FTD

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has had some rough outings this month. He has a 6.38 ERA while giving up a .336 wOBA to his opponents. While there are a couple of injuries to the Nats, they still have a very solid lineup. Eovaldi is a sizable underdog tonight and can be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11900 DD, $5900 DK, $57900 FF, $15700 SS, $12350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has a nice matchup against Eovaldi tonight who has given up a .362 wOBA to LH hitters. LaRoche has a .386 wOBA vs. RH pitching and makes a nice play even in the huge Marlins Park.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton always has nice upside and he’s hit Zimmermann well in the past. He’s taken Zimmermann deep 3 times already in his career in only 24 at-bats.

Additional Plays: Christian Yelich

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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