MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees |
| John Lackey | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | NYY (-112) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.637 | 0.284 | 20.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.737 | 0.325 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.743 | 0.328 | 21.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.595 | 0.265 | 20.0% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP  | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Lackey – Lackey pitched very well in his first two starts of the season, but had his struggles on the road last season as he posted a 4.48 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Lackey had a high K/9 of 7.7 last season, but the Yankees hit RH pitching well and the total of this game is a bit higher than I would like to see. You want to target pitchers that are big favorites in games that feature a low total. That’s not the case with Lackey today. Rating = 5
- Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is off to a typical Kuroda type of season. He has a 2.92 ERA with 9 K’s over 12 innings in his first two starts of the season. He did struggle against the Red Sox last season though with a 4.88 ERA while giving up a .302 batting average. There are a lot of top pitching options on the mound today and Kuroda is in a less than favorable position. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Boston
- David Ortiz – Kuroda gave up a .323 wOBA to LH batters last season and Ortiz has certainly had Kuroda’s number in the past. In 20 career at bats, Ortiz has reached base 13 times and has 5 XBH’s off of him. While BvP is a tough stat to trust, it does help build an already strong case for a player.
New York
- Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is one of those players that has a high floor which is extremely rare in daily fantasy baseball. He’s scored positive fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 games and is off to a hot start this season batting .350 with 5 stolen bases.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
| Tampa Bay | Cincinnati |
| Alex Cobb | Vegas Moneyline | Alfredo Simon | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TBR (-125) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.667 | 0.298 | 22.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.704 | 0.323 | 17.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.574 | 0.267 | 23.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.495 | 0.242 | 18.5% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alex Cobb – Cobb is a pitcher that’s been able to take his terrific numbers on the road. He posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 9 road starts. He could make a nice tournament play as he did boast a K/9 of 8.4 last season and David Price managed to shut down this Reds’ offense last night. Rating = 6
- Alfredo Simon – Simon pitched out of the bullpen for the last two years, but looked good in his first start of the season has he struck out 7 batters and only gave up 1 earned run over 6 innings of work. That said, I’m not completely sold on him as a starter and think that he could struggle with this Rays lineup in the HR friendly Great American Ballpark. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
- Matt Joyce – Simon gave up a .323 wOBA to LH batters last season out of the bullpen and that average could get higher with him starting this season. Joyce is batting .423 this season with 2 HR’s. He makes a terrific punt option today.
Cincinnati
- Cobb held LH and RH batters under a .300 wOBA last season. He is dominant against batters from both sides of the plate and I’ll be avoiding all Reds bats in cash games.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
| Cleveland | Chicago White Sox |
| Justin Masterson | Vegas Moneyline | Felipe Paulino | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-126) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.675 | 0.312 | 19.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.642 | 0.284 | 13.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.187 | 0.483 | 0.246 | 31.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.480 | 1.112 | 0.489 | 17.2% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Justin Masterson – Masterson did not look good in his last start. He was really having a tough time hitting his spots and there is nothing worse than targeting a pitcher that is struggling with his command. The White Sox offense has actually been very good early on in the season and with Masterson’s struggles on the road combined with his command problems, he is not a recommended fantasy option today. Rating = 5
- Felipe Paulino – Paulino offers a high K-rate (9.4 per 9 IP last season), but he is a very risky pitcher as he can really find himself in some trouble. He’s off to a rough start this season with a 6.52 ERA and a 2.39 WHIP. If you are looking for an extremely deep GPP play, you could take a chance on Paulino, but he should be avoided in all cash games. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
- Ryan Raburn – Paulino is a RH pitcher, but he gave up a much higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters last season. In fact, he gave up a 1.11 OPS to RH batters. Raburn is typically only in play against LH pitching, but he’s in the lineup today and is still close to minimum salary across the industry.
Chicago White Sox
- Adam Eaton – Masterson’s biggest weakness is LH batters. He gave up a .321 wOBA to LH batters last season and Eaton has been a great fit for this White Sox ball club. He already has 12 runs and 8 RBI’s this season batting lead-off.
Kansas City at Minnesota
| Kansas City | Minnesota |
| James Shields | Vegas Moneyline | Ricky Nolasco | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | KCR (-145) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.625 | 0.282 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.746 | 0.335 | 18.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.707 | 0.321 | 19.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.653 | 0.295 | 20.3% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- James Shields – Shields was actually much better on the road than he was at home last season. He posted a 2.07 ERA with a K/9 of 7.9 in 18 road starts. This Twins lineup has been scoring a lot of runs lately, but they are not one of the better offenses in the American League and it’s only a matter of time before they come back down to Earth. Shields is a decent sized favorite (-145) in a game that features a low run total (7.5). Rating = 7
- Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco is off to a rocky start this season. He’s given up 5 earned runs in each of his first two starts and has a WHIP of 2.30. While we obviously can’t expect those numbers to continue, I certainly don’t want to target him while he is still trying to figure it out. Not only that, but the Royals have struck out less than any other team this season which severely impacts his upside. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
- Eric Hosmer – Nolasco gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters last season and has struggled against LH hitters again this season. Hosmer is off to a hot start hitting .350 against RH pitching. He has yet to hit a HR, but he does have nice power against RH pitching.
Minnesota
- With 14 other games in play today, I haven’t found any Twins bats in any of my lineups. Shields is a very tough pitcher and none of the Twins’ batters stand out as viable plays.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis |
| Carlos Villanueva | Vegas Moneyline | Adam Wainwright | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | STL (-220) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.332 | 18.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.614 | 0.278 | 23.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.707 | 0.317 | 20.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.623 | 0.279 | 23.2% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Carlos Villanueva – Villanueva is a career 4+ ERA pitcher, but he does have a nice K-rate that helps his fantasy value. Last season his K/9 was 7.2. The problem is that he plays for the Cubs (lack of run support), he has to face the Cardinals (stacked lineup), and the opposing pitcher is Adam Wainwright. There are a number of reasons to avoid Villanueva today. Rating = 3
- Adam Wainwright – Wainwright is the top pitching option on the board today and makes a very safe cash game play, especially on sites like FanDuel that value the win so heavily. Wainwright is a -220 favorite and was close to unhittable at home last season with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Wainwright should dominate this weak Cubs offense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch into the 8th or 9 inning. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Chicago
- Wainwright received a 10 rating above which does not bode well for the Cubbies’ batters today. Last season Wainwright held LH and RH batters under a .280 wOBA with a K% over 23%.
St. Louis
- Matt Carpenter – Carpenter is similar to Ellsbury in that he almost always scored positive fantasy points. He is an on base machine and has plenty of bats behind him to knock him in. Carpenter hit .360 at home last season and has a nice matchup against Villanueva who gave up a .332 wOBA to LH batters last season.
- Yadier Molina – Molina is off to a hot start this season with 3 HR’s and 8 RBI’s. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities as he is batting 5th. Catcher can be a tough position to fill, but Molina is a reliable option with nice upside today.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
