MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 5th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2014-07-05 16:11:08

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Kansas City at Cleveland

Kansas City					Cleveland
Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Moneyline			T.J. House		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-110)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.306	0.850	0.374	12.2%	SP vs. Left	0.317	0.797	0.348	11.9%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.615	0.282	14.0%	SP vs. Right	0.314	0.896	0.407	15.2%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Guthrie – I keep thinking Guthrie is going to get rocked and he continues to make decent starts. He has a 3.69 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the year. He is getting hit hard by LH batters this year and has a tough matchup against the Indian bats who have not put up the numbers they should against RH pitching, do have a lot of good lefties in their lineup. I still think Guthrie is an avoid, but he may prove me wrong again. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $13804 DS, $11650 DD, $NA DK, $104200 FF, $20500 SS, $NA FTD

• T.J. House – House has seemed to settle down and has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 2 starts. He has a 4.28 ERA and a high 1.49 WHIP this year and now gets the Royals squad who help very little to fantasy value as they strike out least in the league by far. House can be avoided today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5100 FD, $9697 DS, $8150 DD, $ DK, $52000 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Salvador Perez – Perez makes a great option at catcher today, getting a young LH pitcher. Salvy is hitting .319 against lefties on the year and should get a few RBI opportunities today.

Additional Plays: Omar Infante Billy Butler

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – All the lefty bats on the Indians are in play today as Guthrie has really struggled against LH batters. Kipnis has enjoyed a lot of success against Guthrie in his career going 8/14 with 2 home runs.

Additional Plays: Michael Brantley Lonnie Chisenhall Carlos Santana

NY Yankees at Minnesota

NY Yankees					Minnesota
David Phelps		Vegas Moneyline			Yohan Pino		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-115)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.230	0.682	0.312	22.4%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.299	0.798	0.362	17.8%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Phelps – Phelps has been very up and down this year as a starter and has a 4.26 ERA to show for it. Phelps gives up entirely too many base runners (1.41 WHIP) on the year and a .259 BAA. Phelps has a decent matchup against the Twins today, but should only be used as a GPP play at best. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $12603 DS, $10000 DD, $6000 DK, $83700 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Yohan Pino – Pino has had a rough go of it in his first 3 starts this year. He has a 6.32 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and has not thrown over 95 pitches yet. He can safely be avoided against a tough Yankees squad. Rating = 3

Salaries: $3000 FD, $8887 DS, $8150 DD, $6100 DK, $61000 FF, $15100 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – In a short sample size, Pino is getting crushed by LH batters. Ellsbury makes one of the top cash game plays today against Pino today.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner Brian McCann Mark Teixeira

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Most of this Twins squad seems to be struggling at the plate as of late, but they see a pitcher who has gotten lit up a few times this year. Phelps is giving up a wOBA of .356 to RH batters this year and Dozier should have dropped in price due to a recent slump.

Additional Plays: Josh Willingham

Seattle at Chicago White Sox

Seattle					Chicago White Sox
Felix Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Jose Quintana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-140)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.624	0.279	24.9%	SP vs. Left	0.262	0.725	0.321	20.2%
SP vs. Right	0.221	0.573	0.257	28.9%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.673	0.301	19.4%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – King Felix takes the mound this afternoon on one of his pitching streaks that we have come accustomed to over the last few seasons. In his last 9 starts, he has gone at least 7 innings, allowed 2 or less earned runs and has struck out at least 6 batters. His K/9 of 9.61 looks excellent today as he takes on the White Sox who strike out 3rd most in the league. Felix is the top option of the day. Rating = 10

Salaries: $11500 FD, $24866 DS, $22600 DD, $12600 DK, $142700 FF, $33000 SS, $NA FTD

• Jose Quintana – Quintana has been pitching very well recently against some very good offenses. He threw 7 shutout innings against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre and only gave up 1 earned run to Baltimore in 7 innings. His season ERA sits at 3.44 and enjoys a K rate of 7.44 K/9. The win is going to be very tough today for Quintana as I am expecting a big game out of Felix, but makes a nice contrarian play If you are fading Hernandez. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7100 FD, $16006 DS, $14250 DD, $7400 DK, $89100 FF, $22100 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Corey Hart – Hart makes a decent GPP play today as his price is low across the industry due to his recent DL stint.

Chicago White Sox

I will not be targeting any bats against the King today.

Miami at St. Louis

Miami					St. Louis
Andrew Heaney		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		STL (-136)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.262	0.752	0.335	19.4%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.209	0.595	0.273	22.9%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Andrew Heaney – Heaney has disappointed a bit in his first 3 starts of his career. After pitching well in his first start, he has given up 9 earned runs in his last 2 games. He will look to bounce back today, but will be facing a Cardinals team littered with power RH bats, which Heaney has been struggling with so far. Until the matchup is better, avoid Heaney. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $10297 DS, $9050 DD, $6200 DK, $61800 FF, $15400 SS, $NA FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller has been very hit or miss on the season and his K rate has dropped a lot from his first two seasons. He has a 4.10 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this year, but comes into this with a very nice matchup against the Marlins who lead the league in strikeouts against RH pitching by a large amount. Miller makes for a very interesting GPP play today as the win looks very probable today. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6200 FD, $12852 DS, $12100 DD, $6600 DK, $63200 FF, $17400 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Garrett Jones – Jones has a great small sample against Miller today going 7/10 with 2 bombs.

Additional Plays: Derek Dietrich

St. Louis

Yadier Molina – All the righty power bats are in play today against the young lefty, but Molina gets top billing due to being in the best recent form. He has 8 hits in the last 5 games with 2 extra base hits.

Additional Plays: Allen Craig Matt Holliday

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

Philadelphia					Pittsburgh
David Buchanan		Vegas Moneyline			Edinson Volquez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-158)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.277	0.724	0.327	14.0%	SP vs. Left	0.280	0.809	0.359	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.300	0.907	0.399	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.261	0.731	0.330	17.5%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Buchanan – Buchanan has had 8 starts so far this year and holds a 4.86 ERA. He does not go deep into games and has not struck out more than 6 batters yet. Due to a low K rate/innings, Buchanan can continue to be avoided. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $9545 DS, $11550 DD, $6200 DK, $75300 FF, $15400 SS, $NA FTD

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez continues to throw good performances when the matchup is right. In his last 2 starts, he allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings. Today the matchup may be a bit tough for VolTrain as he has allowed a wOBA of .324 to LH batters. Every time we think it is safe to play Volquez this year he seems to let us down. Today, he makes a GPP play only. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $10659 DS, $12200 DD, $6500 DK, $79800 FF, $18500 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Volquez has a wOBA of .356 over the last 2 seasons to LH batters. Utley should be able to take advantage of this matchup and is a great play at the second base position.

Additional Plays: Ryan Howard

Pittsburgh

Gregory Polanco – Polanco has been as advertised so far this year and is hitting .301 since getting called up. He is coming off a great game and has a great matchup against Buchanan today.

Additional Plays: Pedro Alvarez Andrew McCutchen

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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