MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 17th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-05-17 18:56:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Atlanta at St. Louis

Atlanta					St. Louis
Aaron Harang		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-120)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.773	0.339	16.3%	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.774	0.344	20.2%
SP vs. Right	0.260	0.719	0.319	23.7%	SP vs. Right	0.207	0.606	0.279	23.6%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Aaron Harang – Harang is one of the more suprising success stories of the 2014 season thus far, as he enters today’s game sporting a 2.98 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. The Cardinals were just able to see him last week and they didn’t look fooled; scattering nine hits and four runs over his six innings pitched. While i’m not certain Harang is as bad as his 2013 number indicate (5.40 ERA), I am certain that a regression this season is inevitable. Rating = 5

• Shelby Miller – Shelby was knocked around in his first start of the season, but has been locked in ever since; posting a 2.52 ERA over his last seven starts. He has been flat out dominant in his short career when pitching in front of the St. Louis faithful at Busch Stadium; owning a career 12-4 record to go along with a 1.83 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Braves are near the top of the league in strikeouts and Shelby has had success against them in the past. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman has gotten back on track recently, grabbing hits in each of the last four games. He’s always a solid option against right-handed pitching and has had Shelby Miller number in the past (4 for 9 with a double and a homerun).

• Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

St. Louis

Yadier Molina – There aren’t too many exciting options at catcher today, so I think it’s a good idea to target one of the games most consistent hitters. Yadi hasn’t had a lot of success against Harang in the past, but he’s 9 for his last 19 and is hitting .407 in front of his home fans this season.

• Additional Plays: Jhonny Peralta, Peter Bourjos, Matt Carpenter

Pittsburgh at NY Yankees

Pittsburgh					NY Yankees
Edinson Volquez		Vegas Moneyline			David Phelps		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-125)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.295	0.833	0.368	17.3%	SP vs. Left	0.240	0.716	0.327	24.4%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.720	0.326	17.6%	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.758	0.344	16.4%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez has really struggled in each of his last three starts, surrendering 15 earned runs. He won’t stike many batters out (25 k’s in 43 innings) and should probably be avoided in the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Rating = 3

• David Phelps – Injuries have forced Phelps into the starting rotation, and after a solid first outing, he really struggled in his last start. With a pitch count still in play and the shaky results, he’s not really in play on the one pitcher sites today. A home matchup against the Pirates does give him some value as a cheap option to fill out your starting pitching on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez appears to be heating up, and it comes just in time for him to take advantage of the short right field portch at Yankee Stadium. He’s a boom or bust pick probably better suited for GPP use, but he’s always hit right handed pitching well and David Phelps has been susceptable to the long ball in his short career.

New York Yankees

Yangervis Solarte – The switch hitting Solarte is off to a terrific start in his MLB career and has posted a 1.039 OPS so far in his career when swinging the bat from the left-side of the plate. He had a nine game hitting streak snapped on Thursday, but is still hitting .429 over the last seven days (9 for 21).

• Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee					Chicago Cubs
Matt Garza		Vegas Moneyline			Edwin Jackson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-120)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.274	0.746	0.334	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.296	0.802	0.362	18.8%
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.659	0.298	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.267	0.724	0.325	16.7%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – Garza has been a bit disappointing for the Brewers so far, carrying a 4.98 ERA into today’s game against the Cubs. He did however pitch very well against the Cubs in their only other meeting this season, tossing seven innings of two run ball while fanning seven. After spending three whole seasons with the Cubs, he’s become very comfortable pitching at Wrigley Field, where he owns a career 2.70 ERA in 28 starts. Early forecasts show the wind to potentially be blowing out to left field, so monitor that as gametime approaches before comfortably dropping Garza into any lineups. Rating = 5

• Edwin Jackson – Jackson struggled against the Brew Crew last season, losing four of the five starts and surrendering 19 runs in just 28 innings. He has had very little success at Wrigley Field in his career (6-11 record with a 4.98 career ERA in 20 starts). He’s a less appealing option than Garza and becomes a pitcher to avoid if the wind is indeed blowing out. Rating =4

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – I usually target Lucroy versus left-handed pitching, but it’s hard to ignore his past success against the very familiar Edwin Jackson (9 for 26 with a pair of homeruns)

• Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – I don’t really love any Cubs hitters today, but if the wind is blowing out then you’d be wise to take notice. Rizzo is the Cubbies most dangerous hitter and has destroyed the baseball this season at Wrigley Field (1.032 home OPS).

NY Mets at Washington

NY Mets					Washington
Bartolo Colon		Vegas Moneyline			Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-152)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.713	0.311	15.0%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.597	0.270	26.5%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.680	0.300	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.689	0.309	22.9%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bartolo Colon – Colon has been relying on his sub 90’s fastball way too often this season and things haven’t gone well for him. Through eight starts he owns a 2-5 record to go along with a rough 5.84 ERA. Colon has been brutal away from Citi Field this year, posting a 1-3 record and a 7.67 ERA on the road. Rating = 4.5

• Gio Gonzalez – Gio was blasted by the A’s in his last start, but should have a better outing today at home against the Mets. He’s been terrific in all three home starts this season, and recorded a 6-4 record and 2.87 ERA at Nationals Park last season. In three starts versus the Mets last season, Gio was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and racked up 20 K’s in 20 innings. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

New York Mets

David Wright – Wright is notorious for blasting left-handed pitching, and things have been no different so far in 2014 where he owns a .439 batting average against southpaws. Gio doesn’t make things easy on hitters, but Wright has had his number in the past (4 for 14 with a double, a triple, a homerun, and five walks).

Washington

Jayson Werth – Werth has hits in five straight games and has hits in all three prior at bats against Bartolo Colon. With Harper and LaRoche out of the lineup, the Nats will continue to count of Werth to pick up the slack

• Additional Plays: Denard Span

Chicago White Sox at Houston

Chicago White Sox					Houston
Hector Noesi		Vegas Moneyline			Jarred Cosart		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		HOU (-123)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.343	0.935	0.416	17.4%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.590	0.273	18.5%
SP vs. Right	0.346	0.926	0.407	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.717	0.332	9.5%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hector Noesi – Pitching for his third team this season, Noesi was finally “stretched out” in his last outing, tossing 117 pitches over six innings against the Diamonbacks. His 7.25 ERA is a bit misleading as it was drastically inflated by a massive blowup earlier this season against his current team (7 earned in 1 IP). Since joining the White Sox, Noesi has posted a respectable 4.50 ERA. He’s strikeout rate is decent and he’s definitely in play on some sites today with a date against the Houston Astro’s looming. Rating = 5

• Jarred Cosart – It’s not always easy to use a Houston pitcher in DFS, but many of them are quietly having solid seasons so far, and Cosart is one example. He’s given up two runs or less and pitched through at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Today he’ll do battle with a Chicago White Sox team that is leading MLB in strikeouts, so his mid 90’s fastball could do some damage in this one. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu has cooled off a bit for the first time in his MLB career, but is still showing off his incredible power. Abreu has had much more success in his short career against right-handed pitching and should thrive in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park.

Houston

Jason Castro – Lefties hitting .300 off of Neosi in his career making Castro a solid option behind the plate today. He owns a career 1.256 OPS against the White Sox and posted a .904 OPS at Minute Maid Park in 2013.

• Additional Plays: George Springer

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2