MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 31st

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-05-31 16:19:39

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Texas at Washington

Texas					Washington
Nick Tepesch		Vegas Moneyline			Doug Fister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-133)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.288	0.808	0.362	17.5%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.689	0.311	18.9%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.613	0.283	21.5%	SP vs. Right	0.293	0.699	0.321	16.7%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nick Tepesch – Tepesch has pitched well in all three of his starts this season; posting a 2-0 record to go along with a 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, his .245 BABIP and 81.4% LOB% both point to a regression towards last seasons’ 4.84 ERA. His solid start to the season keeps him in play as a potential value option on multi-pitcher sites, but there are safer options. Rating = 4

Salaries: $4800 FD, $NA DS, $12600 DD, $NA DK, $70700 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Doug Fister – After a rough season opener against the Athletics, Fister has cruised through his last three starts; allowing only four runs in 19.1 innings. This Rangers lineup lacks a lot of it’s punch without Prince Fielder and they’ll also lose their DH in this one. While some of these Rangers hitters have had success against Fister in prior meetings, I like the spot he’s in today pitching at home. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7400 FD, $ DS, $13800 DD, $ DK, $91000 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Shin-Soo Choo – Lefties have pounded Fister early on this season; posting a .341 average (.382 wOBA). Choo is the most dangerous lefty in the Rangers lineup and can rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He’s also done well against Fister in the past, going 9 for 28 with a pair of doubles and a pair of homeruns.

• Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Adrian Beltre

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has continued his assualt on right-handed pitching this season by posting a .973 OPS against them so far this season, and he also owns a .346 average this season at Nationals Park. Nick Tepesch has been very tough on right-handed batters, but has allowed lefties to post a .338 wOBA this season

• Additional Plays: Denard Span, Jayson Werth

Minnesota at NY Yankees

Minnesota					NY Yankees
Kevin Correia		Vegas Moneyline			Masahiro Tanaka		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-250)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.291	0.795	0.349	12.5%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.597	0.267	20.3%
SP vs. Right	0.307	0.801	0.351	12.9%	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.636	0.280	36.1%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kevin Correia – Correia pitched decently against the Rangers in his last start, allowing four runs on just seven hits (with no walks) in seven innings. He enters today’s game sporting a 2-6 record to go along with a 6.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He doesn’t save his fantasy value by striking out many batters and is a less than desirable fantasy option. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4600 FD, $7878 DS, $9350 DD, $5700 DK, $40000 FF, $13500 SS, $9500 FTD

• Masahiro Tanaka – With a home matchup against Minnesota on tap, Tanaka is one of the best options on the board today. He sports a 7-1 record, 2.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 10.17 K’s/9 through his first ten career starts. While I expect MLB hitters to make adjustments as the season goes on, this will be the first time these Twins hitters will face him and he’s proving to be very difficult to adjust to. With that said, the Twins are the one of the most patient teams at the plate in MLB, as evidenced by both leading the league in pitches per plate appearance (at 4.09 pitches) and being second in the league in walks per nine. The Twins may try to make it difficult for him to pitch extremely deep into this game, but he should be able to rack up fantasy points while he’s in there. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10500 FD, $25225 DS, $19000 DD, $12100 DK, $165400 FF, $31200 SS, $17500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Tanaka is holding opposing hitters to a .226 batting average and has elite strikeout potential, therefore I will not be targeting any Minnesota batters today.

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury looks to have his “mojo” back as he’s racked up eight hits, five RBI’s, and three stolen bases during his current four game hitting streak.

• Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

Kansas City at Toronto

Kansas City					Toronto
Aaron Brooks		Vegas Moneyline			Marcus Stroman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-150)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.500	1.000	0.444	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.444	1.228	0.542	5.0%
SP vs. Right	0.600	1.645	0.664	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.385	0.973	0.397	21.4%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Aaron Brooks – Brooks has two innings of MLB experience under his belt, and to say that things didn’t go to well for him would be an understatment. In those two innings, he was knocked around for six earned runs on seven hits against the Tigers. I dont think the Royals are even excited about using him as a starter today, and neither should you. Rating = 1

Salaries: $4000 FD, $11597 DS, $7500 DD, $NA DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Marcus Stroman – Stroman, a highly regarded pitching prospect in the Blue Jay’s system, will make his first MLB start today in replacement of Drew Hutchinson. He got his feet wet in the big show earlier this season and things did not go well for him out of the bullpen as he allowed nine earned runs in just 6.1 innings pitched. He hasn’t been pitching particularly well lately for AAA Buffalo either and it would be wise to take a wait-and-see approach with him. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4200 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $ DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – Gordon homered last night to extend his hitting streak to eight games and is now hitting .299 this season against right-handed pitching. With a struggling righty making the first start of his career on the bump for Toronto, I really like this matchup for Gordon.

• Additional Plays: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Even at AAA, Brooks has struggled against left-handed batters and Reyes has been heating up. Over his last 13 games he’s hitting .321 and has stolen six bases. He should find himself in his usual spot at the top of the order and I expect the Blue Jays to pile on some runs this afternoon

• Additional Plays: Edwin Encarncion, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista

San Diego at Chicago White Sox

San Diego					Chicago White Sox
Tyson Ross		Vegas Moneyline			Andre Rienzo		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-112)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.635	0.297	20.3%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.740	0.330	16.3%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.625	0.284	25.9%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.750	0.339	16.3%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyson Ross – Ross has pitched well this season, but his success appears to be tied to Petco Park. He sports a 1.54 ERA in his six starts at home, but things have been a bit ugly for him so far on the road (5.02 ERA in five starts). The White Sox are near the top of MLB in runs scored this season, but they’ve cool off a bit without Jose Abreu. Ross is averaging nearly a strikeout per inning this season and the White Sox lead MLB in strikeouts by a fairly wide margin. His road struggles concern me for use in cash games, but he’s a strong GPP option. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $17319 DS, $15450 DD, $9100 DK, $110400 FF, $23900 SS, $12300 FTD

• Andre Rienzo – Rienzo has been decent lately and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts. With that said, his control problems have consistently ran his pitch count up early and he’s yet to pitch more than 6.1 innings in any of this years starts. He’s not an exciting option, but he sees a nice fantasy boost today with MLB’s lowest scoring team, the San Diego Padres, visiting U.S. Cellular Field. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5200 FD, $11957 DS, $10250 DD, $7000 DK, $66700 FF, $18500 SS, $10500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Carlos Quentin – Quentin is off to a solid start this season, hitting .370 with a pair of homeruns in his first 11 games. He had a pair of hits last night against his former team and is in a nice spot here once again.

• Additional Plays: Everth Cabrera

Chicago White Sox

Alexei Ramirez -Tyson Ross has been extremely tough on left-handed bats this season (.251 wOBA) but has been very hittable for righties (.346 wOBA against). Ramirez has hits in five straight games and is now hitting .343 this season against right-handed pitching. To make things a bit better for him, he’s also been ripping the cover off the ball at U.S. Cellular Field this season, where he owns a .381 batting average.

San Francisco at St. Louis

San Francisco					St. Louis
Yusmeiro Petit		Vegas Moneyline			Michael Wacha		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-150)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.731	0.331	20.3%	SP vs. Left	0.210	0.533	0.243	22.3%
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.682	0.300	25.9%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.651	0.295	27.2%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yusmeiro Petit – Petit will draw the start for the injured Matt Cain, and considering the Cardinals recent success against Cain, this may not be as bad for the Giants as it appears. Petit has had mixed results as a starting pitcher and brings a plump 5.08 ERA into this afternoon’s game at Busch Stadium. This is a tough matchup for him and he’s yet to pitch deep into any start this season, but he does own nearly a strikeout per inning and the St. Louis Bats have cooled off lately. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $NA DS, $9900 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $14700 SS, $NA FTD

• Michael Wacha – With a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning through his first 11 starts of the season, Wacha is proving that last year’s success was no fluke. All three of this years wins have come at Busch Stadium. After being hit by a foul ball in the pitching elbow during a start last week and following it up with just two strikeouts against the Yankees in his last start, there is a small concern that he’s hurting more than he’s letting on. With that said, he’s still a strong target in both cash games and GPP’s. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8400 FD, $18303 DS, $16450 DD, $9500 DK, $109600 FF, $24200 SS, $15700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

With Wacha only allowing a .259 wOBA to lefties and a .285 wOBA to righties this season, I won’t be targeting any SFG batters.

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Lefties own a .908 OPS against Petit so far this season and also own all five of the homeruns he’s allowed. Carpenter is riding a 12 game hitting streak and is now hitting .306 during the month of May.

• Additional Plays: Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong, Oscar Taveras (if he’s available and cheap)

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2