MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 3rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Masahiro Tanaka | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-200) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.828 | 0.365 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.159 | 0.444 | 0.202 | 25.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.758 | 0.335 | 21.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.817 | 0.352 | 41.2% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi has been hit hard in each of his last four games and subsequently hasn’t pitched into the sixth inning in any of those games. In his short career, Ordorizzi has really struggled to retire left-handed batters; surrendering a .300 career batting average to southpaws. He has a solid strikeout rate and his .384 BABIP this season suggest he’s had some rough luck, but he is nothing more than a GPP flier today in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Rating = 4.5
- Masahiro Tanaka – It’s safe to say that Tanaka has been mightily impressive so far in his MLB debut. He sports a 3-0 record to go along with a very stingy 2.27 ERA and .93 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in just 35 innings. He’ll be on a lot of my rosters for the time being while MLB hitters attempt to adjust to his pitching style. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
None of these Tampa hitters have ever stood in the batters box against Tanaka, and that’s proving to be a difficult task. I’m avoiding Tampa bats today.
New York Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Odorizzi has struggled to retire left-handed batters in his young career and few lefties are more difficult to send back to the dugout than Ellsbury.
- Additional Plays:
Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran
Oakland at Boston
| Oakland | Boston | ||||||||
| Tommy Milone | Vegas Moneyline | Jon Lester | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BOS (-138) | LEFT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.297 | 0.771 | 0.338 | 13.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.685 | 0.300 | 25.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.716 | 0.318 | 18.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.700 | 0.315 | 19.2% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tommy Milone – I’m absolutely terrified to start a soft-tossing lefty against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Milone has only fanned four total batters over his last three starts (18+ innings) and was annihilated in his only career visit to Fenway Park (8 runs in 4 2/3 innings). Rating = 3.5
- Jon Lester – Oakland had the third highest OPS in MLB last season versus left-handed pitching and made Lester work hard in their two meetings last season (drawing 9 walks in just 12 innings). With that said, Lester was very solid at home last season, posting a 7-1 record and 3.09 ERA and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning so far in 2014. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Josh Donaldson – It’s no longer a secret that Donaldson crushes left handed pitching, as he put up a 1.043 OPS against them last season. He’s been cold of late, but I like his chances to send one (or two) over the Green Monster
- Additional Plays: – Yoenis Cespedes, Derek Norris
Boston
Shane Victorino – The Flyin’ Hawaiian has a long track record of mashing left-handed pitching (a .923 OPS since 2011) and looks to be fully recovered from the hamstring injury that sidelined him at the beginning of the season. He’s very reasonably priced across the industry. UPDATE: Victorino is not in the Red Sox lineup today
- Additional Plays: – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia
Baltimore at Minnesota
| Baltimore | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Correia | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-110) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.760 | 0.336 | 18.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.784 | 0.346 | 12.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.761 | 0.336 | 18.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.310 | 0.817 | 0.358 | 12.3% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen enters today’s game on the heels of three straight solid outings and held the Twins scoreless the only time he faced them last season. However, he’s struggled a bit on the road since last season and the Twins are averaging over 5 runs per game so far this season. Rating = 5
- Kevin Correia – Correia has officially reached “gas-can” status and should be avoided in all circumstances. He enters today’s game with a plump 7.33 ERA on the season and Detroit used him for batting practice in his last outing. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Markakis brings a ten game hitting streak into this afternoon’s game and has had success against Correia in a very limited sample size (2 for 3 with a double). He has the added bonus of being a threat to do damage on the base-paths once on board and carries a reasonable price-tag across the industry
- Additional Plays: – David Lough
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – Dozier is a DFS specialty as he has little value in season long leagues but is a tremendous daily play whenever a left-handed pitcher is on mound against him. Don’t let his numbers against southpaws so far this season fool you, as last year he posted a .978 OPS against lefties in 2013.
- Additional Plays: – Trevor Plouffe, Josmil Pinto
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Michael Wacha | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Arrieta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-166) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.563 | 0.255 | 25.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.187 | 0.656 | 0.301 | 17.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.627 | 0.288 | 27.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.747 | 0.343 | 19.2% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Wacha – Wacha is emerging as an extremely talented #2 pitcher for the Red Birds. He’s already defeated the Cubbies once this season and owns a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first six starts this season. He’s striking out batters at an elite clip this season (10.9 K’s/9). Keep an eye on that wind though, because his outlook drops significantly if that breeze continues to gust out to center. Rating = 7.5
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta will make his season debut today against a Cardinals team who he mowed down the only time he faced them last season. However, he owns a career 5.23 ERA, the Cardinals possess a very dangerous lineup and he’ll be pitching in the very hitter friendly Wrigley Field. There are certainly better options on the board. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta – Peralta is swinging a hot bat over the last week, going 10 for his last 28 with three doubles and three homeruns. He offers rare power potential from the SS position and could be in for a big day with the wind blowing out at Wrigley
- Additional Plays: Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, Matt Adams
Chicago
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo has now gone deep in back-to-back games and already owns a career homerun off of Michael Wacha in one of their six prior meetings. He had his best success last season in the exact situation; at home versus a right handed pitcher.
Seattle at Houston
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Vegas Moneyline | Dallas Keuchel | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-133) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.598 | 0.264 | 19.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.770 | 0.345 | 29.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.661 | 0.292 | 23.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.800 | 0.356 | 15.6% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma will make his 2014 debut today, with the hopes of building on his sensational 2013 which saw him post a 14-6 record and a sensational 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has a favorable matchup on tap against an Astro’s team who he dominated last season (2-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 33 strikeouts in just 26 innings. Despite the great matchup, I want to see him pitch this season before completely trusting him in cash games. Rating = 7
- Dallas Keuchel – Targeting Houston pitchers in DFS is rarely an advisable option. With that said, Keuchel has pitched rather well so far in 2014; owning a 3.56 ERA and a strikeout per inning in his first five starts. He did walk away with a “W” when these teams met last week. Rating = 4.5
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Corey Hart – Hart is one of the few Mariners hitters who does damage against left-handed pitching, posting a .960 OPS over the last three seasons.
- Additional Plays:
Houston
Iwakuma held opposing batters to a .220 average last season and there aren’t any Houston hitters that I’ll be eager to roster