MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 3rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh |
| Jason Hammel | Vegas Moneyline | Wandy Rodriguez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PIT (-162) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.869 | 0.383 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.739 | 0.345 | 6.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.698 | 0.314 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.675 | 0.299 | 21.6% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP  | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Hammel – Hammel posted a 4.97 ERA last season with 6.2 K’s/9. Hammel did however, pick up his play after the All-Star Break with a 3.90 ERA. Hammel has really struggled against LH batters in his career. Last season he gave up a .383 wOBA to LH batters. The total for this game is set at 7.5 runs and Hammel is a +150 underdog. He makes a less than appealing fantasy option tonight. Rating = 4
- Wandy Rodriguez – Wandy only started 12 games last season due to an injury, but he pitched well in those starts with a 3.59 ERA. Wandy was extremely efficient at home last season with a 2.04 ERA while holding batters to a .184 batting average. He draws a terrific matchup today against the Cubs who have only managed to scored 4 runs combined in their first two games this season. Rating = 7
Hitter Grind Down
Chicago
The Cubs do not hit lefties well as a team and with the exception of Junior Lake as a GPP play (hit .377 against LH pitching last season), it’s probably best to avoid the Cubs today.
Pittsburgh
- Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez is off to a slow start this season, but he has crushed RH pitching in his career. Last season, he hit 33 of his 36 HR’s against RH pitching. While he only hit for a .249 batting average against RH pitching, his power brought his OPS up to .842.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
| St. Louis | Cincinnati |
| Lance Lynn | Vegas Moneyline | Homer Bailey | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CIN (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.749 | 0.340 | 18.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.734 | 0.330 | 22.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.635 | 0.291 | 26.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.205 | 0.558 | 0.257 | 24.8% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Lance Lynn – Lynn enjoyed a solid season for the Cardinals last year, but his biggest struggles were on the road where he posted a 5.15 ERA. The two biggest stats that are going against Lynn tonight are the fact that he is playing on the road in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark as well as the fact that he gave up a .340 wOBA to LH bats last season and he could have some trouble with Votto and Bruce. Lynn is a high strike-out pitcher though (9 K’s/9) and could make a decent tournament play. Rating = 5
- Homer Bailey – Bailey posted a 3.49 ERA last season and was a high strike-out pitcher with 8.5 K’s/9. Even though Great American is considered a hitter’s park, he managed to pitch well at home last season with a 3.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .213 batting average. The Cardinals have a stacked lineup though and for the money, I’d like to take a pitcher that has a better matchup. Rating = 6
Hitter Grind Down
St. Louis
- Matt Carpenter – Last season Bailey gave up a .340 wOBA to LH batters and Carpenter was an on-base machine last season (.381). Carpenter hit .317 against RH pitching with an OPS of .870 and I like him in this matchup.
Cincinnati
- Joey Votto – As mentioned above, Lynn struggled on the road last season and gave up a .330 wOBA to LH batters. Votto and the Reds are off to a slow start, but should be able to get it going today. He hit .317 with 37 XBH’s against RH pitching last season.
- Jay Bruce – Bruce hit for a .270 batting average and had 20 of his 30 HR’s against RH pitching last season. Bruce makes a terrific tournament play as he has great power against RH pitching.
Colorado at Miami
| Colorado | Miami |
| Juan Nicasio | Vegas Moneyline | Jacob Turner | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | COL (-107) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.730 | 0.333 | 18.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.703 | 0.323 | 12.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.302 | 0.814 | 0.362 | 15.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.757 | 0.344 | 17.5% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Franklin Morales – This game features two SP’s that I’m not too excited about. The total for this game is set at only 7.5 runs though so there could be some value. Morales spent most of last season in the bullpen and still only managed to post an ERA of 4.62. He was excellent against LH hitters as he held them to a .183 batting average, but he really struggled against RH bats as he gave up a .304 batting average and an OPS of .925. Fire up the GIANCARLO band wagon! Rating = 3
- Jacob Turner – Turner posted a 3.74 ERA last season, but had a very low K-rate of only 5.8 K’s/9. Turner got off to a fast start and then really cooled off towards the end of the season with a 4.92 ERA over his last 12 starts. Turner gave up a .323+ wOBA to both RH and LH pitchers last season which is not promising. Turner just doesn’t have enough fantasy potential to be worth consideration today. Rating = 4
Hitter Grind Down
Colorado
- Carlos Gonzalez – This pick is pretty simple. Cargo crushes RH pitching (OPS over 1.00) last season and Turner struggles against LH batters (.3232 wOBA last season). Cargo is off to a nice start and this Rockies’ offense should keep rolling tonight.
Miami
- Giancarlo Stanton – If you have played daily fantasy baseball in the past, then you know that Giancarlo blasts LH pitching (1.00 OPS last season). He is off to a quick start this season with a HR and 6 RBI’s in his first 3 games. I’m all aboard the Stanton train today against Morales.
- Casey McGehee – McGehee is off to a very nice start as a member of the Marlins. He already has 5 RBI’s and is batting right clean-up today against Morales. Not only that, but he is dirt cheap across the industry.
Kansas City at Detroit
| Kansas City | Detroit |
| Yordano Ventura | Vegas Moneyline | Anibal Sanchez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | DET (-156) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.687 | 0.311 | 20.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.671 | 0.302 | 26.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.700 | 0.302 | 10.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.541 | 0.244 | 28.0% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
UPDATE: GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yordano Ventura – Ventura is a very interesting play today. While he does have Sanchez as the opposing pitcher, Ventura is the cheapest pitcher available on most of the major DFS sites. Ventura started 3 games last season and posted a 3.52 ERA. Yordano finished the Spring with a 3.23 ERA and 23 K’s over 23 innings pitched. He could have a breakout season and his high K-rate puts him in play right from the start. If it were a better matchup, I would suggest him in cash games, but the Tigers are tough at home so I would only recommend him as a tournament play. Rating = 5
- Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez is my top overall pitcher today. Max Scherzer got that nod yesterday and pitched very well against this Royals team and I expect a similar result today from Sanchez who is coming off of a career season. Sanchez posted a 2.57 ERA with a K-rate of 9.98 K’s/9. If you are playing cash games, there are no safer plays than Sanchez today. Rating = 9
Hitter Grind Down
Kansas City
- Sanchez really doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game. He held LH batters to a .247 batting average and RH batters to a .207 batting average last season. The Royals will likely have more strike-outs than hits which is never good for daily fantasy.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera is the best hitter in the game and he makes pitchers pay for every little mistake that they make. Miggy hit for a .366 batting average at home last season and has one of the most powerful bats in baseball. His price seems awfully cheap across the industry.
Washington at NY Mets
| Washington | NY Mets |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Moneyline | Zack Wheeler | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-142) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.699 | 0.308 | 17.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.764 | 0.346 | 19.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.581 | 0.266 | 20.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.620 | 0.284 | 19.7% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tanner Roark – UPDATE: Jordan Zimmerman has been scratched from his start (Flu). Roark will draw the start for the Nationals. Roark is not available on DS, but is available on FD and DK if you want to get him in your lineup. He has a nice matchup against the Mets and he posted a 1.51 ERA last season over 14 games (5 starts). The line has moved, but Washington is still a small favorite at -118. Rating = 5
- Zack Wheeler – Wheeler had a very solid rookie campaign last season. He posted a 3.42 ERA while striking out 7.6 batters per 9 innings. Surprisingly, he struggled at Citi Field with a 4.73 ERA. I expect that number to be much lower this season and Citi Field is one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball. Last season, Wheeler gave up a .346 wOBA to LH batters which is what concerns me here as the Nationals have plenty of power in their LH batters. Rating = 6
Hitter Grind Down
Washington
- Bryce Harper – Harper is off to a slow start this season, but I’m sure most of us would after getting kicked in the head right after our first at-bat of the year. The Nationals moved Harper up in the lineup today, he will be batting 2nd and he should have a nice outing against Wheeler who struggles against LH bats.
New York Mets
- Even with Roark starting, the Mets still have a pretty bad matchup. Roark is a very serviceable pitcher. If you are targeting any bats here, target the LH batters as Roark gave up a .263 batting average to lefties last season.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
