MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 7th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Mets at Washington
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||
| Jacob Degrom | Vegas Moneyline | Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-139) | RIGHT | 7 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.659 | 0.299 | 22.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.664 | 0.293 | 19.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.625 | 0.279 | 23.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.687 | 0.304 | 25.10% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP  | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jacob Degrom – We have a fairly large slate of games for a Thursday. There are 4 day games and 9 evening games. Today’s schedule kicks off with the Mets and the Nationals. Degrom is enjoying a terrific rookie season with a 2.77 ERA (3.37 xFIP) and a K/9 of 8.6. He’s producing a 43% ground ball rate and has given up very few HR’s. He may be a large underdog here, but he’s certainly in play. Nationals Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and Degrom has proven that he can pitch on the road. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8400 FD, $18500 DD, $10000 DK, $121800 FF, $29200 SS, $16650 FTD
- Jordan Zimmermann – If you are playing in the early slate, Zimmermann is probably the safest play. He has been very sharp at home with a 2.62 ERA while holding batters under a .300 wOBA. He’s averaging just over 8 strikeouts per game and rarely gives any free base passes to opposing batters. He draws a nice matchup against the Mets who are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8900 FD, $17850 DD, $9400 DK, $87200 FF, $28500 SS, $16300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – Duda is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has over a .400 wOBA over the last month of play and is the only Mets hitter that I will have any exposure to against Zimmermann.
Additional Plays: None
Washington
Denard Span – With only 4 games in the early slate, Span may be worth a look in the OF. He has 14 hits in his last 10 games with 4 multi-hit games during that stretch. He also has 23 SB’s on the season.
Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche
Detroit at NY Yankees
| Detroit | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Rick Porcello | Vegas Moneyline | Shane Greene | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-117) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.648 | 0.289 | 13.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.320 | 10.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.689 | 0.301 | 18.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.565 | 0.262 | 30.80% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rick Porcello – Porcello doesn’t get a ton of love as the 5th member of the Tigers rotation, but he’s having a very solid season. He owns a 3.18 ERA (3.65 xFIP) while holding opponents under a .300 wOBA. Porcello doesn’t have the best K-rate in baseball (15.8%), he gets outs. He’s really improved his numbers against LH hitters this season which should come in handy today against the Tigers. All that said, this is still a tough matchup against the Yankees in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7900 FD, $15700 DD, $7400 DK, $118400 FF, $24000 SS, $15700 FTD
- Shane Greene – Greene has been good this season, but certainly not great. He owns a 3.68 ERA (3.67 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.4. He’s producing a solid ground ball rate of 56%. The downside is that he is walking 8% of batters and he has a HR per fly ball rate of 13.6%. His matchup against the Tigers is a tough one as the Tigers are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5700 FD, $8150 DD, $6500 DK, $70700 FF, $16600 SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Miggy is not in the lineup today, but V-Mart is. Martinez has been heating up with 9 hits over his last 6 games. I like his matchup against the rookie Greene and I always like targeting LH hitters with the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium.
Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Ezequiel Carrera
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Porcello has struggled with LH hitters throughout this career and Ellsbury has had his number in the past going 7/10 with 2 HR’s off of him. Ellsbury has decent pop in his bat and is always a threat to steal a base or two.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner
San Francisco at Milwaukee
| San Francisco | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Jake Peavy | Vegas Moneyline | Wily Peralta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.812 | 0.356 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.303 | 0.823 | 0.360 | 17.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.763 | 0.333 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.196 | 0.592 | 0.270 | 17.00% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Peavy – Peavy was working on a no-hitter through 5 or 6 innings in his last start against the Mets, but that quickly came to an end and he ended up giving up 4 earned runs. He owns a 4.73 ERA on the season and hasn’t been particularly great against LH or RH hitters. He’ll have his hands full with a healthy Brewers offense that looks very good now that they have a couple of LH hitters in their lineup. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $12750 DD, $6800 DK, $55200 FF, $16000 SS, $12750 FTD
- Wily Peralta – Peralta has really cut down on his walks this season and the rest of his stats have followed. He’s produced a ground ball rate of 54% to go along with his 3.54 ERA. Peralta’s biggest issue this season is that he is giving up a lot of HR’s. He has a 15% HR per fly ball rate. He should pitch well here, but temper your expectations. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $13750 DD, $6700 DK, $110700 FF, $21500 SS, $13750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Pablo Sandoval – If you are targeting any hitters on the Giants, target the LH power hitters. Peralta has given up 11 HR’s to lefties this season and today’s game will be played in the HR-friendly Miller Park.
Additional Plays: Brandon Belt
Milwaukee
Gerardo Parra – Parra is a nice addition to this Brewers lineup and a much needed LH bat. He should come in handy today against Peavy who has given up a .356 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy
Chicago Cubs at Colorado
| Chicago Cubs | Colorado | ||||||||
| Kyle Hendricks | Vegas Moneyline | Yohan Flande | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CHC (-108) | LEFT | 10 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.595 | 0.259 | 18.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.175 | 0.527 | 0.237 | 20.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.598 | 0.267 | 14.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.329 | 0.871 | 0.372 | 10.70% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Hendricks – We have two subpar pitchers on the mound today in Coors which should mean plenty of runs scored from both teams. The total is set at 10.5 runs and if I had to bet, I’d put my money on the over. Avoid both pitchers in this one. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5800 FD, $13900 DD, $6000 DK, $86800 FF, $16000 SS, $13900 FTD
- Yohan Flande – See Kyle Hendricks. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5300 FD, $8850 DD, $5300 DK, $55000 FF, $13000 SS, $8850 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Starlin Castro – Flande has given up a .372 wOBA to RH hitters this season so don’t be afraid to target a few of the RH bats in this Cubs lineup. Castro has hit lefties well this season and should be batting clean-up again today.
Additional Plays: Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Justin Ruggiano
Colorado
Corey Dickerson – Dickerson had a huge game last night and will look to build on that today against the righty Hendricks. Dickerson owns a .421 wOBA against RH pitching and a .471 wOBA at home. He gets both today against Hendricks.
Additional Plays: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Justin Morneau
Miami at Pittsburgh
| Miami | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Brian Flynn | Vegas Moneyline | Edinson Volquez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PIT (-130) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.754 | 0.330 | 16.60% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.702 | 0.311 | 14.40% | ||||
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brian Flynn – This will be Flynn’s first start of the season. He’ll take the spot of Justin Turner in the rotation, but I’m not sure that he will fare any better. Flynn posted an 8.50 ERA in 4 starts last season and has a 4.00 ERA at the Triple-A level this year. Even without Andrew McCutchen, I will not be targeting him against the Pirates today. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $7150 DD, $6500 DK, $69800 FF, $13000 SS, $7150 FTD
- Edinson Volquez – Volquez’s ERA this season is nearly 2 full runs lower than his ERA last season, but his xFIP of 4.38 is actually a bit higher than it was in 2013. This suggests that he’s basically been the same pitcher as he has been in year’s past. The Marlins do strike out often on the road, but Volquez is a pretty risky option tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $13250 DD, $6000 DK, $71400 FF, $15300 SS, $13250 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is an up and coming star. He has good speed, nice power, and a good eye for the ball. He has a .337 wOBA against RH pitching this season and draws a nice matchup against Volquez who has struggled against LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – The sample size is extremely small, but Flynn has given up a .433 wOBA to RH hitters in his career. Harrison has been swinging a hot bat 20 hits over his last 10 games. Yes, 20 hits, that is not a mis-print. Target him tonight against the young lefty.
Additional Plays: Russell Martin, Gaby Sanchez, Starling Marte
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
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