MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 8th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Baltimore at NY Yankees
| Baltimore | NY Yankees |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Moneyline | Ivan Nova | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | NYY (-142) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.679 | 0.303 | 20.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.647 | 0.310 | 17.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.780 | 0.342 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.661 | 0.306 | 22.8% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen gave up 12 hits and 4 earned run in a loss to the Red Sox in his first start this season. Chen struggled on the road last season with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He did post a K/9 of 6.8 last season, but runs into a pretty tough Yankees lineup. There are better options than Chen today. Rating = 4
- Ivan Nova – Nova threw 5 2/3’s innings against the Astros and picked up a win in his first start this season. His biggest issue was his command as he gave up 5 walks. He will need to correct that today if he is going to pick up another win. Nova is a decent favorite (-142) and had an impressive K/9 of 7.5 last season. I don’t mind Nova in cash games if the price is right. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
- Chris Davis – I typically don’t like to use BvP as a deciding factor in my daily fantasy baseball decisions, but I don’t mind using them to affirm who I already expect is a good play. Davis crushes right hand pitching and is 8/23 with 3 HR’s off of Nova in his career.
- Matt Wieters – Wieters is riding a 5 game hitting streak and also has a great track record against Nova. Again, BvP can largely be ignored, but the sample size is decent. In 29 career at bats, Wieters has 11 hits off of Nova including 4 HR’s and 3 doubles.
New York
- Alfonso Soriano – Soriano had a very slow start to the season, but has turned it up in his last two games. Chen gave up a .341 wOBA to RH batters last season and Soriano posted a .904 OPS against LH pitching last season.
- Jacoby Ellsbury – Even though this is a lefty/lefty matchup, Chen gave up a .301 wOBA to LH batters last season and if Ellsbury can find a way to get on base, he should have the green light to steal second. He makes a contrarian play in a tournament.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia |
| Kyle Lohse | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PHI (-110) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.723 | 0.320 | 16.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.675 | 0.301 | 14.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.667 | 0.296 | 14.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.318 | 0.789 | 0.357 | 13.5% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Lohse – This game was postponed due to rain yesterday. Vegas has this as a pick ‘em with a run total of 8.0 runs. Lohse looked pretty good in his first start this season. While he did pick up a loss, he struck out 8 batters over 7 innings of work. Lohse keeps his ERA down (3.38 last season) and has a decent K-rate per 9 innings (5.7). He’s a decent pitching option, but not one that will likely be a popular play with such a large slate of games. Rating = 5
- Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick looked good in his first start this season, but I’m still not sold on him as a viable fantasy option. He really struggled in the 2nd half of last season and finished with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Kendrick’s low K-rate isn’t enough to overcome the fact that he gives up too many hits. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – Braun is dealing with a thumb injury, but I think it has been hurt more by his awful play to start the season than the actual injury. His price is coming down across the industry and I love his matchup against Kendrick who gave up a .357 wOBA to RH batters last season.
- Jean Segura – Segura has 4 hits in his last two games a nice matchup against Kendrick who struggles against RH batters. Segura also has great speed and could end up being a great play at his price point.
Philadelphia
- Chase Utley – Utley is off to an extremely hot start this season batting .468 with 6 RBI’s. He has a nice matchup against Lohse who gave up a .320 wOBA to RH batters last season. Keep targeting Utley in cash games today.
- Ryan Howard – Howard makes a terrific GPP play today. You may want to avoid him on sites that negate for strikeouts, but he has a decent shot of hitting a HR here as Lohse gave up 14 HR’s to LH batters last season.
Arizona at San Francisco
| Arizona | San Francisco |
| Trevor Cahill | Vegas Moneyline | Tim Hudson | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | SFG (-155) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.752 | 0.342 | 15.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.657 | 0.300 | 16.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.709 | 0.319 | 17.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.654 | 0.292 | 18.8% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Trevor Cahill – Cahill’s first start of the season was against the Giants and his second start of the season will be against them again. Cahill didn’t pitch great in that game and now has to face them in San Francisco. While this is more of a pitcher’s park, Cahill posted a 4.17 ERA on the road last season and is a relatively big underdog (+145). He should be avoided today. Rating = 3
- Tim Hudson – Hudson must have read my Grind Down and thought to himself that he had to prove Notorious wrong. He came out of the gates firing with 7 K’s over 7 shutout innings against the D-Backs in a very hitter friendly Chase Field. Now he gets to face them at home. Hudson is a pretty large favorite and his price across the industry is very affordable. He makes a pretty decent cash game play today. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
- As far as cash games go, I will likely be avoiding the D-Backs bats today. They struggled against Hudson the other night and now have to face him in a much more pitcher friendly ballpark. Paul Goldschmidt is always worth a look as a GPP play, but avoid all D-Backs in cash games. Hudson held LH and RH batters to a .300 and .292 wOBA last season.
San Francisco
- Brandon Belt – Belt has been on fire to start the season. He already has 4 HR’s on the season to go along with a .323 batting average and 7 RBI’s. Cahill gave up a .342 wOBA to LH batters last season and Belt looks like a terrific play once again.
Texas at Boston
| Texas | Boston |
| Martin Perez | Vegas Moneyline | Felix Doubront | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | BOS (-135) | LEFT | 9.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.741 | 0.338 | 16.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.641 | 0.290 | 22.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.714 | 0.315 | 15.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.751 | 0.336 | 18.5% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Martin Perez – Perez posted a 3.62 ERA last season with a 1.34 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.1. While those numbers are certainly nothing to scoff at, he draws a very tough matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway today. The Red Sox hit LH pitching well and are an excellent hitting team in Fenway. The total of this game is set at 9.5 runs and Perez is a decent sized underdog (+125). Rating = 3
- Felix Doubront – Doubront pitched well at home last season with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. His K-rate is pretty decent at 7.7 per 9 innings pitched. He does draw a very tough matchup against the Rangers though. Lackey was able to keep this Rangers lineup in check last night, but I have a feeling that they won’t stay dormant for much longer. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Texas
- Alex Rios – Doubront gave up a .336 wOBA and a .751 OPS against RH batters last season so you may want to target the Rangers bats that hit from the right side of the plate. Rios hit for a .313 average and an OPS of .889 against LH pitching last season. He also has some decent speed and will throw in a stolen base every now and then.
Boston
- Dustin Pedroia – I am very high on the Red Sox bats today. Pedroia hit for a .354 average against LH pitching last season and Perez has struggled with RH bats in his career. Pedroia should come up with runners in scoring position as well.
- Mike Napoli – I always seem to be on the wrong side of Napoli, but I like the matchup at home against Perez. Napoli has great power against LH pitching as he hit for an OPS of .899 against lefties last season.
Miami at Washington
| Miami | Washington |
| Henderson Alvarez | Vegas Moneyline | Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-185) | LEFT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.733 | 0.330 | 10.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.558 | 0.252 | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.509 | 0.239 | 16.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.692 | 0.312 | 22.5% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez is one of those pitchers that never seems to be on anyone’s radar. His price is never cheap enough for him to be considered a punt and his average ERA (3.59) and K-rate per 9 innings (5.0) just don’t make him a great daily fantasy baseball pitcher. The Nationals offense hasn’t been great so far this season, but I will certainly not be targeting Alvarez with Gonzalez as the opposing pitcher. Rating = 3
- Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a very solid play tonight. Last season he posted a 2.87 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.9. He is a high strikeout pitcher that is good against RH batters (.312 wOBA) and dominates LH batters (.252 wOBA). He is one of the biggest favorites on the board tonight and makes a terrific play in all leagues. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Miami
- Even though this Marlins’ offense is off to a hot start, I do not like the matchup against Gio in Nationals Park. He was dominant there last season and should have no problem making quick work of this lineup.
Washington
- Adam LaRoche – Alvarez was dominant against RH batters last season with a .239 wOBA. That means that if you are going to target any Nationals bats, you want them to hit from the left side of the plate. LaRoche has great power against RH pitching and already has 2 HR’s this season.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
