MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-05 20:55:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Detroit at NY Yankees

Detroit					NY Yankees
David Price		Vegas Moneyline			Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-134)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.682	0.302	25.00%	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.694	0.307	14.50%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.636	0.279	28.20%	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.727	0.320	18.70%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price – Price will make his Tigers debut tonight against a very familiar opponent in the Yankee. Price throws a ton of strikes which allows him to keep his strikeout rate up (10.0 per 9 innings) and his walk rate down (1.2 per 9 innings). He owns a 3.11 ERA with an even more impressive 2.72 xFIP. While he will be pitching in a tough ballpark tonight, he’ll have the platoon advantage over the LH hitters which should take the short porch in right out of play. Price is an elite fantasy option tonight, but I do have him ranked behind King Felix and Kershaw. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $11300 FD, $22200 DD, $12300 DK, $148500 FF, $NA SS, $22200 FTD

• Hiroki Kuroda – After a rocky start to the season, Kuroda’s numbers look very similar to that of his numbers over the past couple of years. He has a 3.98 ERA with a K/9 of 6.2. He is sporting a career low walk rate of only 4.9%. That said, the Tigers come to town tonight and bring a red hot offense with them. The Tigers are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 4th in wOBA on the road as well. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13000 DD, $7200 DK, $73800 FF, $ SS, $13000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – As always, Miggy is one of the top 1B options available tonight. He has a pretty solid matchup against Kuroda who has given up a .320 wOBA to RH hitters. Miggy has hit RH pitching well this season and is playing in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez

NY Yankees

Brian McCann – This lefty/lefty matchup may seem a bit odd, but McCann has hit LH pitching well this season and Price has actually given up a higher wOBA to LH batters than he has to RH batters. McCann has also hit Price well in a small sample size: 4/8 with 2 HR’s.

Additional Plays: None

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cincinnati					Cleveland
Johnny Cueto		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Tomlin		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-110)			RIGHT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.194	0.545	0.249	25.9%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.692	0.296	22.20%
SP vs. Right	0.170	0.532	0.241	26.3%	SP vs. Right	0.303	0.839	0.365	20.50%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Johnny Cueto – This is a matchup against a top pitcher that faces an elite offense vs. RH pitching. It’s always tough to predict what is going to happen in these situations because you can really see both scenarios playing out. Cueto owns a 2.05 ERA (3.03 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.2. He’s producing a 49% ground ball rate and has a WHIP well under 1.00. The issue here is that he’s facing an Indians offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 7.0

Salaries: $10300 FD, $19000 DD, $9500 DK, $147400 FF, $NA SS, $19000 FTD

• Josh Tomlin – Tomlin is a very sneaky play tonight if you want to pair him up with one of the top aces on multi-pitcher sites. Tomlin has an unimpressive 4.47 ERA, but his 3.11 xFIP suggests that he’s actually pitching pretty well. He owns a K/9 of 8.0 and he’s only walking 2.8% of batters. So basically, Tomlin has a nice K-rate, he doesn’t walk many batters, and he’s facing a depleted Reds offense that is ranked 27th in hitting over the last 30 days. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $12350 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – Tomlin has been a reverse splits pitcher this season which means he gives up a higher average to batters of the same handedness. Tomlin has given up a .365 wOBA to RH hitters and Frazier is a nice source of both speed (16 SB’s) and power (20 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Brantley has 5 straight multi-hit games and we’ve seen him hit elite pitching well all season long. He’s probably the only Indians hitter that I will have any exposure to, but I could see him having another nice outing as he has a .422 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: None

NY Mets at Washington

NY Mets					Washington
Zack Wheeler		Vegas Moneyline			Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-160)			LEFT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.807	0.358	21.9%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.669	0.300	27.40%
SP vs. Right	0.211	0.594	0.268	24.0%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.672	0.302	23.90%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Wheeler – Wheeler is finally starting to show some signs of consistency. He hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. He has lowered his ERA to 3.60 on the season to go with his K/9 of 8.8. His walk rate of 9.4% is a bit concerning, but sometimes that’s the price that you have to pay for a high strikeout pitcher. Tonight he faces a Nationals offense that is ranked 18th against RH pitching. He’s a nice mid-range option, but is probably better suited as a GPP play than a cash game play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $14400 DD, $8200 DK, $99500 FF, $NA SS, $14400 FTD

• Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez is looking to bounce back after getting rocked by the Phillies in his last start. Gio is having another solid season with a 3.88 ERA (3.61 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.3. He does walk a lot of batters though as he has a walk rate of 9.6% on the season. The matchup is favorable though and he is a big favorite. If you don’t want to pay up for Kershaw or Hernandez, Gonzalez is a nice alternative. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9000 FD, $15700 DD, $9900 DK, $70900 FF, $ SS, $15700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

David Wright – Wright is the one Mets hitter that you may want to consider tonight. Wright has a .375 wOBA against LH pitching this season and is facing Gio who was roughed up a bit in his last start by the RH batters in the Phillies lineup.

Additional Plays: None

Washington

Denard Span – Did anyone else see that catch Span made in the OF last night? It was an incredible catch and it required him to repair his divot. Span is riding an 8-game hitting streak in which he has 12 hits and has scored 7 runs. He has a nice matchup against Wheeler who has given up a .356 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche

Houston at Philadelphia

Houston					Philadelphia
Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		HOU (-122)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.622	0.280	25.0%	SP vs. Left	0.296	0.870	0.378	16.10%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.700	0.310	16.7%	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.679	0.303	13.00%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – After a string of 5 bad starts in a row, Keuchel has bounced back nicely. In his last 2 starts, he’s pitched a combined 16 innings while striking out 12 batters and only giving up 1 earned up. His price is still cheap across the industry and this may be the last night to take him with the discount. Keuchel has one of the best ground ball rates in baseball (61.8%) and he’s averaging close to 7 K’s per 9 innings. He is a terrific option to pair with one of the top aces on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $15850 DD, $6600 DK, $106900 FF, $NA SS, $15850 FTD

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is not a terrific fantasy option. He has a high ERA (4.92) and a low K-rate (5.6 per 9 innings). He has given up a HR on 10.7% of fly balls this season and will be pitching in the HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park tonight. The Astros actually have some nice power in their lineup. There are better options tonight at his price point. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11000 DD, $5800 DK, $50200 FF, $ SS, $11000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jason Castro – Castro has quietly been swinging a hot bat. He has 12 hits (5 went for extra bases) over his last 10 games and draws a nice matchup tonight against Kyle Kendrick who has given up a .378 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Jose Altuve

Philadelphia

Marlon Byrd – Byrd has always been able to hit LH pitching well and this season is no different. He is sporting a .353 wOBA against southpaws and is a nice mid-range option in the OF tonight.

Additional Plays: None

Miami at Pittsburgh

Miami					Pittsburgh
Brad Hand		Vegas Moneyline			Charlie Morton		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-147)			RIGHT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.666	0.289	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.643	0.293	19.70%
SP vs. Right	0.274	0.773	0.340	14.1%	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.699	0.314	17.60%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brad Hand – Hand’s numbers look pretty pedestrian across the board. He owns a 4.15 ERA on the season with a K/9 of only 5.6. He’s walking an average of 3.9 batters per 9 innings too which suggests that he’s struggling a bit with his command. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight as he faces a Pirates offense that is ranked 5th in wOBA over the last month of play. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5600 FD, $10100 DD, $6000 DK, $67000 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Charlie Morton – Morton isn’t known as a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s averaging a career-high 7 K’s per 9 innings. He has been terrific at home this season with a 2.18 ERA while holding opponents to a .226 batting average. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Marlins who are ranked 24th in road wOBA with a league-high 25.4% strikeout rate. It could be a nice time to buy low on Morton. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $13150 DD, $6400 DK, $67500 FF, $ SS, $13150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins struggle offensively on the road and I really think Morton is in a nice spot tonight. I’ll be avoiding the Marlins hitters tonight.

Pittsburgh

Josh Harrison – It looks like McCutchen may be out for an extended period of time with an oblique injury, so it’s time for the other OF’s to step up in his place. Harrison is batting .303 against southpaws this season with a .338 wOBA and draws a nice matchup against Hand tonight at home.

Additional Plays: Jordy Mercer

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

Have a Question for Notorious about Today’s Games? Check out Expert Chat

Monday through Friday For FanDuel, DraftStreet and DraftKings Incentives Members – 5:30 PM EST