MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 5th Page Two
Baltimore at Toronto
| Baltimore | Toronto | ||||||||
| Bud Norris | Vegas Moneyline | Mark Buehrle | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-120) | LEFT | 9 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.314 | 15.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.753 | 0.332 | 11.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.729 | 0.325 | 20.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.722 | 0.319 | 14.50% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bud Norris – Norris has pitched well at home this season, but owns a 4.66 ERA on the road. He has a pretty average K-rate and tends to walk more batters than most. Tonight he draws an extremely tough matchup against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre which is the AL’s version of Coors Field. The Blue Jays are ranked 1st in wOBA against RH pitching this season. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6900 FD, $12250 DD, $6900 DK, $80200 FF, $NA SS, $12250 FTD
- Mark Buehrle – Buehrle has an impressive 3.11 ERA this season, but that’s about all he has going for him. His xFIP is at 4.32 which is pretty pedestrian and he’s only averaging 5.2 K’s per 9 innings. He has limited upside and is facing an Orioles offense that has really hit well on the road this season. This game will likely turn into a shootout and both pitchers can safely be avoided. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7000 FD, $12600 DD, $5700 DK, $71500 FF, $ SS, $12600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Adam Jones – I was tempted to put Cruz here, but Cruz is in a terrible slump right now so Jones will get the nod over him. Jones has crushed LH pitching to a tune of a .473 wOBA and gets to face an average lefty in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight. He is near the top of my list of OF’s to target tonight.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Nick Markakis
Toronto
Jose Reyes – The Blue Jays are one of my favorite offenses to target tonight. Norris struggles on the road and the Rogers Centre is one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball. Reyes has nice pop against RH pitching and also has nice stolen base potential tonight.
Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Dioner Navarro, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista
San Francisco at Milwaukee
| San Francisco | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Tim Lincecum | Vegas Moneyline | Jimmy Nelson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-128) | RIGHT | 8 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.692 | 0.312 | 14.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.749 | 0.336 | 23.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.742 | 0.324 | 27.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.724 | 0.330 | 19.60% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tim Lincecum – Right when Lincecum starts to resemble a consistent fantasy pitcher, he goes out and gives up a combined 11 earned runs in his last 2 starts. Lincecum tends to struggle away from AT&T Park and he’ll have his hands full tonight with the Brewers in Miller Park. At his price point, there are better matchups to exploit. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $14350 DD, $7900 DK, $67400 FF, $NA SS, $14350 FTD
- Jimmy Nelson – Nelson has pitched pretty well this season. He owns a 4.12 ERA with a K/9 of 8.6. He is still a very young, very inexperienced pitcher though and with all of the other options on the mound, I’m not sure Nelson is going to find his way onto any of my lineups. He has a pretty average matchup against the Giants who are ranked 13th in wOBA on the road this season. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Hunter Pence – Pence is having a nice road trip. He has 6 hits over his last 4 games, 5 of which went for extra bases. Tonight he gets to face a young pitcher in a HR-friendly ballpark. He could make a nice contrarian play in the OF.
Additional Plays: Brandon Belt
Milwaukee
Ryan Braun – Braun has 5 hits over his last 3 games and draws a nice matchup against Lincecum who has been a reverse splits pitcher over the last few years. Braun has also hit Lincecum well in his career going 7/21 with 2 HR’s off of him.
Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Scooter Gennett
San Diego at Minnesota
| San Diego | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Jesse Hahn | Vegas Moneyline | Phil Hughes | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIN (-122) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.168 | 0.489 | 0.222 | 25.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.615 | 0.269 | 23.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.191 | 0.541 | 0.263 | 25.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.330 | 0.819 | 0.357 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jesse Hahn – Hahn owns a 2.01 ERA this season, but his 3.16 xFIP does suggest some regression. That said, the strikeouts have been there as he is averaging over 9 K’s per 9 innings. His price on DK may be a bit too expensive, but he is certainly in play on FD as a tournament play. The Twins own a pretty average offense against RH pitching and strike out at a 21.7% clip. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $16700 DD, $9200 DK, $126700 FF, $NA SS, $16700 FTD
- Phil Hughes – Hughes has been lit up over the last month and a half, but he seems to be slowly rounding back into form. Tonight he faces a red hot Padres offense, but the Padres are still ranked near the bottom in every major offensive category. If you are looking for a high upside play in a tournament, Hughes is a great candidate as this Padres offense is likely to come crashing back down to Earth here soon. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6800 FD, $12600 DD, $7600 DK, $68800 FF, $ SS, $12600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Even though the Padres have been red hot and Hughes has been struggling, I will not be targeting any of the Padres bats tonight.
Minnesota
Danny Santana – There may not be a hotter hitter in baseball right now. Santana has 12 hits (6 XBH’s) over his last 7 games and is coming off of a 18.75 fantasy point outing on FanDuel.
Additional Plays: None
Texas at Chicago White Sox
| Texas | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Colby Lewis | Vegas Moneyline | John Danks | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CWS (-137) | LEFT | 9 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.370 | 0.986 | 0.426 | 15.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.325 | 9.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.782 | 0.338 | 20.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.806 | 0.353 | 17.60% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Colby Lewis – Lewis has pitched better than his 5.98 ERA suggests, but he’s still one of the worst starters in all of baseball. He runs into a red hot White Sox offense that is ranked 4th in wOBA over the last 14 days. Expect another big outing from Jose Abreu and his crew. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6400 FD, $9400 DD, $5400 DK, $42400 FF, $NA SS, $9400 FTD
- John Danks – Danks is a bit too inconsistent for my liking. He has an ERA well over 4.00 and his K/9 of 6.2 is not enough to make up for the earned runs that he seems to give up in each of his outings. The Rangers are thought of as one of the worst offenses in baseball, but they are actually very good against LH pitching (7th in wOBA). Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $12100 DD, $6200 DK, $70200 FF, $ SS, $12100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Alex Rios – Rios is one of the top wOBA plays tonight. He has a .434 wOBA against southpaws this season and Danks is giving up a .353 wOBA to RH hitters.
Additional Plays: Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre
Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton – Eaton gets the nod over Abreu as the top play because Lewis has given up a .426 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Eaton meanwhile, has a .350 wOBA vs. RH pitching and has an insane 21 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Jose Abreu, Conor Gillaspie, Alexei Ramirez
Boston at St. Louis
| Boston | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Rubby De La Rosa | Vegas Moneyline | Lance Lynn | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-158) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.850 | 0.365 | 14.20% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.682 | 0.310 | 17.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.674 | 0.300 | 19.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.650 | 0.291 | 24.60% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa is another mid-range option that I’m skipping over tonight. He hasn’t been terrible this season, but he hasn’t been turning heads either. He owns a 3.64 ERA (3.87 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.1. He’s a sizable underdog tonight against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals and I’ll be avoiding him in all league formats. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $11700 DD, $5700 DK, $43000 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Lance Lynn – Lynn is coming off of a terrific month of July in which he posted a 1.71 ERA while holding batters to a .210 batting average. He has always pitched well at home and he gets to face a Red Sox team that has all but given up on the season. I don’t have him listed quite as high as some of the other mid-range pitchers, but he’s certainly in play tonight. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8200 FD, $17500 DD, $8900 DK, $112600 FF, $ SS, $18100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
There aren’t any Red Sox hitters that stand out as must plays tonight. Lynn has lowered his wOBA against LH hitters to .310 this season and he’s pitched very well at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis
Matt Adams – If you are looking to save some cap space at 1B, look no further than Adams. He has a great matchup against De La Rosa who has given up a .365 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Adams continues to rake against RH pitching and should see plenty of RBI opportunities.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Oscar Taveras