MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 1st Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-01 20:54:56

Kansas City at Minnesota

Kansas City					Minnesota
James Shields		Vegas Moneyline			Ricky Nolasco		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-124)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.654	0.295	20.9%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.770	0.344	17.4%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.727	0.326	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.273	0.716	0.317	20.3%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – We keep waiting for Shields to kick it into gear, but we can only wait so long, especially in the daily fantasy baseball world. Shields has had an ERA over 4.80 since the start of May and he’s given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. His price still reflects his early season production and I won’t be paying up for him tonight against the Twins. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8000 FD, $16859 DS, $14700 DD, $7700 DK, $94200 FF, $22400 SS, $14700 FTD

• Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco has not enjoyed his time as a member of the Twins’ starting rotation. Through 16 starts, he has a 5.74 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP. He’s one of the cheapest pitchers on the board tonight, but I see him as a borderline GPP play at best. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10512 DS, $9450 DD, $6100 DK, $46100 FF, $13000 SS, $9450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – Nolasco has been extremely vulnerable to LHB’s this season and with Eric Hosmer in a prolonged slump, Gordon looks like the top play here. He has a nice matchup and a .359 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Salvador Perez

Minnesota

Joe Mauer – Shields has given up a .297 batting average to LHB’s this season and Mauer could make a nice value play at 1B. He has a .336 wOBA against RH pitching this season and has hit Shields well in the past: 14/40 with 3 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Brian Dozier

Cleveland at LA Dodgers

Cleveland					LA Dodgers
Justin Masterson		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Beckett		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-150)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.733	0.335	18.0%	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.767	0.343	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.192	0.515	0.259	30.2%	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.645	0.294	23.3%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Masterson – Masterson has been a boom or bust fantasy option all season long and that is exactly what he is tonight against the Dodgers. Masterson is susceptible to LHB’s, but if he can pitch around Dee Gordon and Adrian Gonzalez, he could have a nice outing. Masterson is cheap and has the ability to post an 8+ strikeout game. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $11557 DS, $10500 DD, $6400 DK, $52600 FF, $17100 SS, $10500 FTD

• Josh Beckett – A lot of people were waiting for Beckett to come crashing back down to Earth, but his numbers have actually gotten better as the season has progressed. He now has a 2.11 ERA on the season with a 1.01 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.5. While the Indians have been great against RH pitching this season, Beckett is certainly in play tonight at home. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8600 FD, $19460 DS, $17850 DD, $9300 DK, $111700 FF, $26000 SS, $17850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

There really aren’t any options that stand out here. Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley are both expensive options at their respective positions and you can find better options in their price range.

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – If you are targeting any Dodgers’ bats tonight, target the LHB’s in this lineup as Masterson has always had trouble with batters from the left side of the plate. A-Gon is starting to heat up with 10 hits over his last 8 games.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Andre Ethier

Cincinnati at San Diego

Cincinnati					San Diego
Mike Leake		Vegas Moneyline			Ian Kennedy		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-108)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.274	0.735	0.328	13.6%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.774	0.340	23.8%
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.672	0.305	17.9%	SP vs. Right	0.254	0.706	0.324	21.0%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Leake – Just as all hitters see a fantasy boost when playing in Coors Field, all pitchers see a fantasy boost when pitching in Petco Park. Not only does Leake get to pitch in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball, but he gets to face the Padres who are ranked dead last against RH pitching. The Padres also hold the 4th highest strikeout rate against RH pitching. The sky is the limit for Leake tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8400 FD, $16234 DS, $14700 DD, $8300 DK, $107700 FF, $24200 SS, $13500 FTD

• Ian Kennedy – Surprisingly, Kennedy has actually pitched a little better on the road that he has at home this season. All that says to me is that he is able to pitch well away from Petco. Kennedy has a high strikeout rate and a nice matchup tonight against the Reds. Of the two pitchers in this game, Kennedy has a little more upside, but Leake may be the safer cash game play. Rating = 7

Salaries: $6800 FD, $16339 DS, $14350 DD, $8500 DK, $70100 FF, $22900 SS, $14350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati / San Diego

As usual, I’ll be avoiding all hitters in Petco tonight. I don’t mind Billy Hamilton here because his fantasy value is directly tied to stolen bases, but the rest of the bats in this game can be ignored.

St. Louis at San Francisco

St. Louis					San Francisco
Marco Gonzales		Vegas Moneyline			Tim Lincecum		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-118)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.253	0.716	0.327	21.3%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.253	0.725	0.325	24.3%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marco Gonzales – Gonzales will be making his 2nd career start tonight. He gave up 5 earned runs over 5 innings in his major league debut. That debut was in Coors Field though so we have to give him a pass there. Gonzalez is projected as a number 3 or 4 starter in the rotation, but I think it will take some time before he’s ready for that. I’m taking a wait and see approach on him rather than targeting him in my lineups. Rating = 4

Salaries: $4200 FD, $10462 DS, $8150 DD, $4700 DK, $67000 FF, $13000 SS, $8150 FTD

• Tim Lincecum – Lincecum is coming off of a no-hitter against the Padres. That’s the second time in as many seasons that he has no-hit the Padres. Based on his boom or bust type of play, we could easily see him get blown up tonight against the Cardinals. Lincecum has pitched well at home this season, but his price has come up a bit. I think this could be a case of fools gold and I don’t think I’ll be buying in. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15102 DS, $14000 DD, $8300 DK, $93400 FF, $22600 SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Carpenter is riding a nice little 5-game hitting streak in which he has safely reached base 9 times. Carpenter has a nice matchup against Lincecum and has a .346 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Posey and LH pitching go together like peanut butter and jelly, beer and wings, and gambling and Las Vegas. Posey has a .388 wOBA against southpaws this season and draws a terrific matchup against the rookie lefty Gonzales.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

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